中国金融去杠杆暂时停止

全球宏观投资

致敬凯恩斯、索罗斯、利佛摩尔

在岸企业债发行量激增至3.1万亿元,三月创单月记录。中国企业负债率GDP占比略有回落,这应该主要是民企贡献的。

China’s Corporate Deleveraging Campaign May Be Set Back by Years

  • Nation’s corporate leverage had been dropping before crisis
  • Company bond sales have climbed to a record this month

By Bloomberg News(Bloomberg) — 

China’s corporate leverage is ramping up again, before borrowers had even finished working down the last surge.

The campaign by policy makers to rein in the growth of debt was just approaching the four-year mark when battling the coronavirus outbreak quickly replaced all other priorities. And it was showing results: nonfinancial corporate debt last year was noticeably, if marginally, down from a 2016 peak relative to the size of the economy.

For now, China has returned to the 2008 model of opening up the credit taps, especially through state-run enterprises and local governments. The new tack also means potentially more help for private firms that would otherwise have defaulted. Investors have applauded: yields on lower rated, local government financing vehicles have come down to 2016 lows.

“Beijing still has sufficient policy tools to avoid systemic financial risk, but a continued rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio is inevitable in coming quarters,” said Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura International HK Ltd. “The risk associated with a further debt buildup will be one of the key tasks Beijing needs to handle in the post-COVID-19 period.”

Policy makers’ measured approach to offering economic aid — averting deep large-scale interest-rate cuts or Federal Reserve style massive asset purchases — suggests authorities remain wary of the long-term risk of a rapid debt buildup such as occurred after 2008.

China’s nonfinancial corporate debt accounted for 156.7% of the country’s gross domestic product as of the third quarter of last year, down from a peak of 162.8% in early 2016 but up sharply from 98% on the eve of the global financial crisis. It’s also well above the 74.2% for the U.S. or 101.9% for Japan, data compiled by the Institute of International Finance show.

Chinese companies have sold a combined 3.1 trillion yuan ($445 billion) of onshore bonds so far this year, up 12.5% from the total for the first quarter last year. March alone account

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