疫情能否演绎成一个全球资本市场的黑天鹅？至少今天全球市场的反应已经有这个苗头了，直到疫情被控制的苗头出现后，才会形成一个V型反转。这是一篇分析好的分析，建议圈友都可以阅读。从交易的角度，这倒的确是一个好机会。

Virus Taps Into Vulnerability of Financial Markets: Macro View

By?Mark Cudmore

(Bloomberg) –?

Markets are driven by narratives, and the virus outbreak that has now spread in four continents is finding investors at a particularly vulnerable time, with valuations in many risk assets arguably stretched and volatility near record lows.

Without speculating how the novel coronavirus situation will evolve from here, it already has enough features to prompt severe risk aversion in the week ahead. It has now spread globally and Chinese authorities said Sunday that the transmission is increasing. With signs that the disease may be infectious long before symptoms show, the situation could deteriorate further in coming days as more cases emerge

Less than two weeks ago in this column,?I argued?that only a black swan event would see expensive stock markets correct lower, since there was no obvious negative catalyst on the horizon. This outbreak has the potential to be that kind of event

The key reason why this catalyst will matter where geopolitical scares such as Middle East conflict or North Korea missile tests do not, is that it’s front and center with the retail investor. Films?such as?Outbreak and Contagion have shown that fear of a viral outbreak is something that plays deep in the general population. It’s an easily accessible and understandable phobia that can strike closer to home than conflicts playing out far away

The shutdown of major parts of the Chinese economy — China is already mulling to extend the Lunar New Year holiday to prevent the spread of the virus, while restaurants and other public spaces are closed, transport is blocked, and public events canceled — at a normally prime consumption period will not only hurt domestic growth, but the knock-on impact will be?felt?globally. After all, C