所有市场的命运在事后看来都是注定的，但是，只是事后。事前看，更多时候是迷茫。另一个交易员对美股前景的假设。后面的确不排除是金发女孩场景，如此，美股上3300并不奇怪，但是，在收益率与经济周期赛跑的过程中，谁会落在后面呢？（这是我的评论）

有一点CRISE是对的，美债收益率再次上行，会打破脆弱的平衡。

The Market’s Fate Is Obvious, But Only in Retrospect: Macro Man

By?Cameron Crise

(Bloomberg) –?

In the game of investing, there are no extra basis points for degree of difficulty. While all market environments are ostensibly created equal, anyone who’s ever pulled the trigger on an investment decision can tell you that that’s just not the case. Sometimes the fundamentals and price action align to make the trend look crystal clear, but on other occasions there are good arguments to be made for things moving either way. That’s the stuff of potential turning points, and eventually one side of the ledger or the other wins out. Ultimately it will look like the market’s fate was obvious, and perhaps it was — but only in retrospect.

Equities are entering one of the biggest weeks of the year on a roll. While few indexes may be threatening all-time highs like the S&P 500, double-digit returns are a regular feature of the global investment landscape in 2019. Given how beat-down things were at the end of last year, it’s nice to see that buying cheap assets can generate handsome rewards.

While this column took a fairly constructive stance toward equities at the beginning of the year, over the last month or two it has adopted a more circumspect attitude. Thus far caution has not been rewarded, though as noted previously it’s not a winning game to try to nail the ding-dong highs. Still, with two and a bit months left to go in 2019 and the SPX on its highs, the obvious question is “what now?”

Recent price action in fixed-income markets has been notable, insofar as yields have shown a greater propensity to rise than in most of 2019. The 10-year Treasury yield is now above its 100-day moving average for the first time since last December; if it can rise above 1.90%, that would represent a higher high and a higher low since the yield meltdown in August.

Does this mat