美国汽车次级贷款公司开始出现财务紧张问题。

任何基于债务的金融危机都是一样的。首先是债务要增长足够快，但此时往往收入增长也非常快，所以收入可以覆盖债务。

但收入终究会慢下来，一旦慢下来，最脆弱的群体就会首先出问题，累及金融体系。剩下的问题，就是看金融体系是否可以面对这个冲击了。这是从1870年来以来，人类面临的永恒的繁荣-衰退周期。只是，每次故事的主角不一样。

这就是为什么收入-消费周期在目前是最重要的，这个道理我花了很多时间才彻底理解。经济周期是由无数个小型周期组成，小型周期之间相互缠绕，彼此纠结，会带来总体数据的延缓或者加速。

所以，不用猜测什么，数据会告诉我们所有真相。

Subprime Auto?Giant’s Loans Souring at Fastest Clip Since 2008

Some Santander Consumer customers quickly fall behind on loans

Rapid downturns for loans may signal fraud and borrower stress

By?Adam Tempkin

(Bloomberg) –?

A growing percentage of?Santander Consumer USA Holdings Inc.’s subprime auto loans are turning out to be clunkers soon after the cars are driven off the lot.

Some loans made last year are souring at the fastest rate since 2008, with more consumers than usual defaulting within the first few months of borrowing, according to analysts at?Moody’s Investors Service. Many of those loans were packaged into bonds.

The rapid failures of subprime auto loans made by Sandander: Bloomberg TV report.

Santander Consumer is one of the largest subprime auto lenders in the market. The rapid failure of some of its loans implies that a growing number of borrowers may be getting loans based on fraudulent application information, a?problem?the company has had before, and that weaker consumers are increasingly struggling. During last decade’s housing crunch, mortgage loans started souring within months of being made,?signaling?growing problems in the market.

Subprime car loans aren’t in a crisis, but lenders across the industry are facing more difficulty. Delinquencies for auto loans in general, including both prime and subprime, have reached their highest levels this year since 2011.

Santander Consumer had sold to bond investors many of the loans that are going bad. When the debt sours soon after the securities are sold, the company is often obliged to buy the loans back, shifting potential losses on the loans to the original lender and away from bond investors.

“This could eventually be a problem for the company and impact its actual performance,” said?Kevin Barker, an equity analyst at Piper Jaffray & Co. Souring loans can cut into profitability, he said, adding that the company can raise its lending standards to reduce losses on new financing it provides.

A Santander Consumer USA spokeswoman said the firm’s asset-backed securities performance has been consistent over time, and are structured with credit enhancement levels that are appropriate for the risk profile of the securitizations. The firm “does repurchase loans from its securitizations for various reasons, which have been consistent over time and in line with the requirements of our transactions,” she said.

On earnings calls this year, executives at Santander Consumer have?said?that the company is less likely to cut deals with borrowers that fall behind on their obligations now. That results in the lender writing off more bad loans, but also cuts the balance of troubled credits it is looking to restructure.

Chrysler Tie

Santander Consumer had $26.3 billion of subprime auto loans as of June 30 that it either owned, or bundled into bonds, according to a report from S&P Global Ratings. That represents nearly half of the company’s total managed loans. The percentage of borrowers behind on their loans climbed to 14.50% from 13.80% a year earlier for the loans the company collects payments on, S&P said.

The uptick in delinquencies and defaults may be tied to Santander Consumer’s efforts to win more business from Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV after tightening its longtime financing partnership with the carmaker in July. The updated agreement, which included a one-time payment of $60 million from Santander Consumer to Fiat Chrysler, came after the carmaker’s chief financial officer had said?last year?that his company was looking at forming its own financing business in the U.S.

But the rising losses may also be a sign that the weakest borrowers are?having growing financial trouble?as economic growth shows signs of slowing. The percentage of borrowers that are at least 90 days late on their car loans is broadly?growing, according to?datafrom the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. At the end of 2018, the number of delinquent loans?exceeded?7 million, the highest total in the two decades the New York Fed has kept track.

Lowering Standards?

Lenders don’t seem to be broadly tightening their standards in response. About 21% of new auto loans made in the first half of this year went