沙特有望在明天之前恢复一半产能。这与我的预估是比较吻合的。我昨天提到的72是第一个阻力位，目前看是有效的。只要后续局势不恶化，大概率布油72是这次事件冲击的头部。

很多朋友担心美国对伊朗动武，我只能说，这是对美国约束条件的不了解。阿富汗战争给美国政治和民心带来的创伤是很多中国人都无法理解的。而从投机成性的川普来讲，刚刚失去了博尔顿，他怎么可能做出需要勇气和智慧的决策呢？放心吧，川普手上没有牌。

至于沙特，更是一个笑话。试想，无人机在沙漠飞行接近1000公里，攻击其原油工业的心脏，而毫无防备，这样的国家，你能信任它对伊朗动武？

历经太多次类似级别冲击事件，我对这些事情，更好的交易机会是等局势稍微明朗一下后，尤其是原油的空头，我昨天已经提示了卧虎藏龙和几个圈友。

Saudis Set to Restore Near Half Output Lost to Drone Strike (1)

U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo blames Iran for Saudi attack

Assault led to loss of about 5% of global oil supply

By?Nayla Razzouk?and?Javier Blas

(Bloomberg) –?

Saudi Arabia will probably restore almost half the oil production lost after this weekend’s devastating drone strike as early as tomorrow, though a full resumption from the world’s biggest crude exporter may take weeks.

That’s according to industry consultant Energy Aspects in a note sent to clients on Sunday. Saudi Arabia will meet obligations to suppliers by running down reserves as state oil company?Saudi Aramco?works toward bringing back all the 5.7 million barrels a day lost after the giant Abqaiq processing plan was set ablaze.

Following the strike, Brent crude futures jumped 19% on resuming trade Monday, the market’s biggest move in 28 years and traded back above $70 a barrel for the first time since May. West Texas Intermediate crude surged as much as 15.5% to a high of $63.34 a barrel.

Although supply into the global market won’t be disrupted in the short term, prices are likely to jump when they open for the week as traders digest the attack. Claimed by rebels in Yemen, but blamed on Iran by the U.S., the assault shows the vulnerability of the very heart of the Saudi economy and how Crown Prince?Mohammed bin Salman’s more aggressive foreign policy could threaten his push for economic modernization.

Before the attack, Saudi Arabia was pumping about 9.8 million barrels a day, almost 10% of global production. Aramco could consider declaring itself unable to fulfill contracts on some international shipments — know as force majeure — if the resumption of full capacity at Abqaiq takes weeks, people familiar with the matter said, asking not be identified before a public statement.

If the disruption is “protracted it could be a big challenge for the oil markets,” Mele Kyari, chief executive officer of state producer?Nigerian National Petroleum Corp., told Bloomberg Television on Sunday.

Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed responsibility for the attacks, but U.S. Secretary of State?Michael Pompeo?blamed Iran directly, without offering evidence for that conclusion. Iran’s Foreign Ministry described Pompeo’s remarks as “blind and fruitless accusations.”

The attack, said by the Houthis to have been carried out by a swarm of 10 drones, is the most serious on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure since Iraq’s?Saddam Hussein?fired Scud missiles into the kingdom during the first Gulf War. The kingdom’s benchmark stock index tumbled as much as 3.1% on Sunday in Riyadh.

S