关于中国今天社融数据的一个简单评论。大致看了一下，与我的想法差不多，所以直接放上来。

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CHINA REACT: August Credit Overshoot Is No Cause for Relief (1)

By?Chang Shu (Economist)?and?David Qu (Economist)

(Bloomberg Economics) –?

OUR TAKE: The overshoot in China’s August aggregate social financing relative to consensus is nothing to get excited about. Sharp declines in undiscounted bankers’ acceptances — not a major plank of financing — in the past few months reversed a little, helping lift the headline reading. The other components of credit showed some seasonal rebounds, but not any meaningful pickup.

Looking ahead, the prospect for credit expansion will remain challenging in coming months — banks have been reluctant to lend and companies reluctant to borrow in an environment where growth is slowing and external pressures from the trade war are strong. The People’s Bank of China resumed monetary easing, cutting the reserve requirement ratio in September and setting the loan prime rate lower in August. We expect more easing, but those initial moves may take time to gain traction.

Aggregate social financing expanded by 1.98 trillion yuan, more than 1.01 trillion yuan in July and above the consensus forecast of 1.604 trillion yuan. The reading was marginally higher than in August 2018.

New yuan loans rose to 1.21 trillion yuan, up from 1.060 trillion yuan in July. This was broadly in line with the consensus forecast of 1.2 trillion yuan and the year-earlier level of 1.2 trillion yuan.

The major swing factor buoying the headline reading was undiscounted bankers’ acceptances, which rose 15.7 billion yuan, after falling for four months.

China Aggregate Social Financing

Monetary easing is set to continue:

The PBOC announced in September a broad-based reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points and a 100-bps targeted RRR cut. These followed a 10 bp reduction in the one-year loan prime rate.

The policy signals point to a steady-hand approach to applying stimulus — we do