美国通胀预期继续下行

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致敬凯恩斯、索罗斯、利佛摩尔

美国通胀预期继续下行。美联储关注两个指标,一是TIPS隐含的预期,二是调查预期通胀。

U.S. Inflation Expectations Dip to Lowest in Years in Fed Survey

By?Matthew Boesler

(Bloomberg) –?

Federal Reserve officials worried about sliding inflation expectations won’t take much comfort in readings from the New York Fed’s latest monthly survey of U.S. households, which fell to multiyear lows in August.

Expected inflation one year ahead dropped to?2.4%?last month, marking the lowest level in the survey’s six-year history, according to the median survey response. Expected inflation three years ahead, a slightly longer-term measure designed to look through short-term influences, slipped to?2.5%, the lowest since May 2017, from 2.6% the month before.

Fed Chairman?Jerome Powell?and his colleagues at the U.S. central bank are keeping a close eye on inflation expectations because they believe such views to be an important driver of actual price pressures. Fed officials cut interest rates in July for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, citing low inflation alongside slowing global growth and trade policy uncertainty

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