美股、美国经济、联储的一个评论，2019年10月会重复2018年10月的故事吗？ 跟我考虑的几乎一模一样。有时候真觉得交易行业卧虎藏龙，大家分析看待问题的深度和广度其实都差不多（5年全职交易经历以上），这个行业的确是全世界最聪明大脑最集中的一个行业。

A Year After Armageddon, Stock Traders Stare Into Familiar Abyss

The variety of risks hasn’t changed much since September 2018

Last year’s plunge continues to reverberate with Fed’s Powell

By?Elena Popina?and?Vildana Hajric

(Bloomberg) –?

Nobody knew it then, but this time last year, the rallying U.S. stock market was about to begin a?plunge?that would erase $5 trillion from share values and convince a lot of people a recession was at hand.

Then, as now, a trade war was raging,?earnings?in doubt and manufacturing losing steam. In the stock market, swings were getting violent — even as the S&P 500 was pulling itself over 2,900 and flirting with an all-time high. Fast-forward to today, and the picture bears an eerie similarity.

Two things stand out in the comparison. One, a?recession?never came. Forecasting the economy is hard, something the market gets wrong as often as humans. Two, shock waves from last year’s plunge are still being felt, cementing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in his role as the main lifeline for risk assets.

“He’s on a tight rope like no other central banker has been before,”?Chad Morganlander, a fund manager at Washington Crossing Advisors. “His message and his signal has been one to take a more balanced approach in the central bank’s behavior. Yes, the probability of a recession has increased, but it’s not flashing a warning light.”

It’s a message investors seem willing to accept, at least for now, and at least for as long as Trump limits his tweet tirades, amid the best two weeks of the quarter in the S&P 500. Credit the Powell Put or the fool-me-once effect, but they’re acting a little less panicked while staring into a familiar abyss. Markets?gyrate, but so far every dip has been met with buyers.

Speaking in Zurich Friday, Powell said the most likely outlook for the U.S. and world economy is continued moderate growth, but the central bank was monitoring significant risks.

“We’re going to continue to watch all of these factors, and all the geopolitical things that are happening, and we’re going to continue to act as appropriate to sustain this expansion,” the chairman said. “Our main expectation is not at all that there will be a recession.”

A variety of things feed the case for a downturn, with mo