美国今天经济数据的一个点评

U.S. Retail, Factory Data Top Estimates in Positive Signs (1)

Data show consumer spending to keep driving economic expansion

Fed factory indexes gain but jobless claims increase

By?Katia Dmitrieva

(Bloomberg) –?

U.S. retail sales rose by the most in four months on a surge in online purchases while two regional factory surveys exceeded estimates, offering some comfort for the economic-growth picture amid increasing concern a downturn is coming.

The value of overall retail?sales?climbed 0.7% in July after a downwardly revised 0.3% increase in the prior month, according to Commerce Department figures released Thursday. The New York Fed’s Empire State index for August, which covers manufacturers in New York, bucked expectations for a decline, while a similar gauge for the Philadelphia Fed’s region fell by less than projected.

Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose after the data, with the retail reading topping all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists that had called for a 0.3% gain. Sales in the?“control group”?subset, which some analysts view as a more reliable gauge of underlying consumer demand, rose 1% and also exceeded the most optimistic projection after a 0.7% rise in June. The measure excludes food services, car dealers, building-materials stores and gasoline stations.

The fifth-straight increase in retail sales shows Americans, buoyed by plentiful jobs and wage gains, are still spending — a welcome sign as the trade war with China weighs on the global outlook with threats of new levies on consumer goods. Personal consumption, the biggest part of the economy, was the largest driver of the expansion in the second quarter.

“The numbers are extremely strong and they come on the back of several good months in a row,”?Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC. “The main driver is the labor market, kicking off very good income gains. It’s a consumer that’s got plenty of wherewithal to spend.”

Ten of 13 major retail categories increased, led by a 2.8% jump for non-store?sellers, which include online shopping. Retail sales in July may have been propped up by Amazon.com Inc.’s 48-hour Prime Day event, which the company?said?surpassed sales from the previous Black Friday and Cyber Monday combined. The promotion also likely drove shoppers to rivals Walmart Inc. and Target Corp.

Walmart on Thursday?posted?strong second-quarter sales and boosted its full-year outlook, and its chief financial officer said the company has used its scale to minimize price increases.

U.S. sales at department stores climbed 1.2% for the best gain since October.

Among the main categories, spending