对巴西食品财报的一个分析。BRF的业绩增长未来实际上有两个驱动：

第一当然是中国，第二是欧洲。去年BRF被限制出口欧洲后，有些养殖场闲置。9月份这些养殖场全面复工。一旦欧洲放开出口禁令，BRF的业绩还会更快增长。

从去年交易中国苹果的经验中，我学习到重要一条：食品的替代性很强。没有一定要吃啥的。鸡肉和鱼肉对猪肉的替代性不可小觑。

Swine Fever Helps Brazil Chicken Giant BRF Return to Profit (1)

Company expects to lower leverage more than previously thought

Brazil chicken exporter has emerged as big beneficiary of ASF

By?Gerson Freitas Jr.?and?Tatiana Freitas

(Bloomberg) –?

The first global ripples of African swine fever are helping Brazilian chicken exporter BRF SA return to profit after almost two years of losses.

The hog-killing disease sweeping through Asia helped push up BRF’s export revenue in the second quarter, combining with higher chicken and pork prices in Brazil to beat earnings estimates and improve the food giant’s debt-cutting?prospects.

BRF has emerged as one of the big beneficiaries of the disease as China looks to fill a protein gap and U.S. suppliers face restrictions amid the trade war with China. Shares in the Sao Paulo-based company rose the most in a year Friday, extending a year-to-date gain to 75%, among the?best performances?by global meat producers.

“Swine fever has started to impact the Asian commercial dynamics,” BRF said in its earnings statement. “Reduced pork volumes in China has resulted in a greater demand for imported products.”

As the cheapest alternative to pork, chicken is set to take market share, Chief Executive Officer?Lorival Luztold analysts on a call Friday.

The natural tendency “is migration to the lowest