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Why Italy Is Headed for Yet Another Early Election: QuickTake

By?Alessandro Speciale

(Bloomberg) –?

Political turmoil in Italy spurred snap elections in 1994, 1996 and 2008. Now, another one appears to be around the corner. Near-constant sparring between unlikely bedfellows?Matteo Salvini?and?Luigi Di Maio, who’ve shared power as deputy premiers in a populist coalition led by Premier?Giuseppe Conte, has come to a head, with Salvini taking steps toward bringing down the government and calling for “swift” early elections. But Conte is seeking a vote in parliament before resigning, and that has major implications for Italy’s budget — a shared concern for the full European Union.

1. How did it come to this?

Salvini, head of the anti-migrant League, and Luigi Di Maio, leader of the insurgent Five Star Movement, clashed on nearly everything during just over a year in government together. Conte, an unelected professor, was plucked from obscurity to mediate between the two coalition partners. Salvini emerged as the stronger political force, especially after the League?trounced Five Star?in European parliament elections in May. He’s increasingly been seen as Italy’s de facto leader.

2. What’s next?

Italians traditionally flock to the seaside in August, but lawmakers may soon have to swap swimsuits for working attire, as parliament will likely be reconvened from its summer recess. A confidence vote on the government could take place the week of Aug. 12 or the following week. If Conte loses that vote, the ball would be in President Sergio Mattarella’s court. After consultations, Mattarella could dissolve parliament at some point in late August.

3. Could the current government survive a confidence vote?

There’s a slim chance a ragtag coalition of left- and right-wing opposition parties, plus Five Star, will back Conte. If so, a temporary “guarantee government” could manage the transition to new elections and possibly handle the 2020 budget in the meantime. That matters, because Salvini’s?fiscal promises?– heavy tax cuts, a vast public works program, some further lowering of the age for pension eligibility — appear incompatible with the budget demanded by the European Commission and expected by investors.

4. Why is the EU involved?

Member countries had to pledge to maintain sound public finances in order to join the euro. Italy is under special scrutiny given its vast public debt and got a formal warning in May from Brussels that it could face penalties for exceeding debt limits or busting its budget. The Commission ultimately decided to withhold disciplinary measures.

5. Who will over