如果贸易对话再次中止，股票的反应可能会非常剧烈。降息的事情告一段落，经济周期正在重新回到投资者视野（昨天的欧股），公司盈利的把戏已经炒了这么多年了，而公司盈利放缓是不争的事实。如果在这些条件下，有一个宏观因子脱颖而出，也是可以想象的一种场景。今年美股尚未有大幅波动。

Failure of Trade Talks Will Surprise Some

By?Mark Cudmore

(Bloomberg) –?

If trade talks have broken down again, stocks will react very badly.

The seemingly abrupt and premature end to the latest round of U.S.-China?talksin Shanghai has lowered expectations for any grand deal and raised fears of trade-war escalation. Someone on the MLIV team asked how much impact that could have, as surely the breakdown can’t have been a surprise in the context of Trump’s recent tweets.

It likely will be a surprise for many, as Trump’s tweets in this regard are often dismissed for