关于最近中国经济数据的总量与结构。彭博这篇分析做的很不错，推荐圈友阅读。总量与结构的矛盾时不时就会出来一次，让大家对未来的变化充满疑虑。

CHINA INSIGHT: Growth Turning Point? Not So Fast — Key Gauges

By?Chang Shu (Economist)

(Bloomberg Economics) –?

Data in June showed overshoots in domestic activities, but weaknesses on the credit side and the external front. Investment expanded at a faster pace than expected. While credit expansion was strong on the surface, weaker growth in long-term corporate lending does not bode well for stabilization. Exports continued to slow, and leading indicators point to more pressures ahead.

We expect further deceleration in China’s growth momentum, despite upside surprises in some data. Banks’ reluctance to lend, and the corporate sector’s hesitance to borrow, will continue to damp long-term lending. With no end-date in sight for the 25% tariffs on half of China’s exports to the U.S., the drag on exports is likely to become larger in the coming months. Signs are emerging of a pick-up in infrastructure spending, but the impact could take a few months to feed through the economy.

Credit surge in June was stronger than a typical rise of that month. Growth of the ASF stock rose to 10.9% in June from 10.6%