德国经济如果陷入衰退，会如何影响其他国家？

A recession in Germany could mean economic damage for these countries

PUBLISHED 54 MINS AGO

Silvia Amaro

@Silvia_Amaro

CNBC.COM

The German economy relies heavily on its car manufacturers — its automotive market is the largest in Europe. A slowdown could impact jobs in Germany, but also in the rest of Europe.

The German car industry might not be as linked to Italy as other nations, but Rome’s vulnerable economic position could accentuate any knock-on effects of a German recession.

14 May 2019, Saxony, Zwickau: Employees at the Volkswagen Sachsen plant in Zwickau assemble Golf model vehicles on a production line.

picture alliance | picture alliance | Getty Images

14 May 2019, Saxony, Zwickau: Employees at the Volkswagen Sachsen plant in Zwickau assemble Golf model vehicles on a production line.

The German economy has lost steam and that could shake other euro zone countries too, including Italy, France, Poland and Spain.

Data out Monday showed the manufacturing sector in Germany has weakened over the last couple of months, adding to other gloomy indicators, with economists considering whether a recession is on its way. If this were to materialize, the entire euro zone would be at risk, given the importance of the German economy to the region.

“We do expect the second quarter to be weak,” Florian Hense, a euro zone economist at Berenberg bank, told CNBC via email. He forecasts zero growth for the current quarter in Germany, but a small pickup to 0.2% in the third quarter. Germany grew at a rate of 0.4% in the first quarter of the year — after narrowly missing a technical recession at the end of 2018.

Hense explained that countries in the region are struggling already, namely Italy, and those that are doing better but have close industrial ties to Germany — such as Austria and Eastern Europe — would be “particularly vulnerable to a German recession.”

“The more an industry-led German recession would spread to the domestic side of the economy, France, Spain and tourism spots in the south (of Europe) would suffer too,” Hense said.

Wide presence for carmakers

The German economy relies heavily on its car manufacturers — its automotive market is the largest in Europe. A slowdown could impact jobs in Germany, but also in the rest of Europe.

French multinational Groupe PSA, that has Opel as a subsidiary, runs 10 plants in six European countries: Germany, the U.K., Spain, Austria, Hungary and Poland. As of December 2018, it employed 30,400 people across Europe, half of which were in Germany.

Volkswagen Group, at the end of 2017, had about 289,000 employees in Germany and about 186,000 in the rest of Europe. Most of its plants are in Germany, followed by Poland, the Czech Republic, Sp