彭博对中国五月份出口数据的分析。与我的猜测差不多，主要是之前订单报关和关税前突击报关。

CHINA REACT: Exports Aided by Pre-Existing Orders (1)

By?Chang Shu (Economist)?and?Qian Wan (Economist)

(Bloomberg Economics) –?

OUR TAKE: The higher-than-expected reading on China’s May exports offers cold comfort. Pre-existing orders and some shipments rushed ahead of U.S. tariff increases may have helped blunt the hit in May from weaker external demand. The outlook is for further deterioration in China’s trade in the coming months in absence of a clear path for resolving the China-U.S. trade war.

Exports managed a 1.1% expansion year on year, following a 2.7% drop in April. That was above the consensus forecast of a 3.9% contraction.

Imports declined 8.5% year on year, reversing a 4% rise in April. The decline was steeper than the consensus forecast of a 3.5% drop.

China’s Trade Balance

We expect exports to wea