在认真看完达里奥对1927~1938年美国经济和市场复盘后，我完全理解为什么他如此担心当前的状况了。的确如此。我最近一直在看日本与美国在1940年代冲突的细节，尝试理解为什么日本的精英阶层会做出明显错误愚蠢的决定。宏观交易员学习历史，只是为了理解当下以及未来的发展场景。

Dalio Sees `Risky Time’ Ahead in U.S.-China Trade Conflict (1)

By?Nathan Crooks

(Bloomberg) –?

Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of investment management firm Bridgewater Associates, said Wednesday that he viewed the U.S.-China conflict as more than a “trade war” and that increasing export controls would be a major escalation.

Dalio said in a LinkedIn?post?that the U.S. shutting off supplies to Huawei Technologies Co. amounts to a step in “weaponizing” export controls. After the move, China indicated that it might respond by not selling rare metals, a critical import that American companies need for mobile phones, magnets and other produc