在这种似乎最坏的时候，是不是可以考虑一种好的可能性呢？领导人通话并且完成快速交易。

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GLOBAL INSIGHT: Trade Truce Ends as Tariffs Rise. What’s Next?

By?Tom Orlik (Economist)?and?Chang Shu (Economist)

(Bloomberg Economics) –?

The trade truce, one of the pillars on which optimism about global growth is founded, is crumbling. The U.S. has moved ahead with its threat to raise tariffs, lifting the rate on $200 billion in Chinese goods from 10% to 25%. China appears certain to retaliate.

With talks between Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer set to resume in Washington Friday, and the possibility of a phone call between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, it’s possible there will be a very speedy resolution. Tariffs will be removed, and the only victims will be investors caught by the whiplash movements of the market in recent days.

It’s also possible higher tariffs will remain in place, dragging on exports and corporate earnings, and sapping market confidence. Based on our estimates, the latest tar