中美本周谈判的四种场景分析。分别是：

提高关税，终止谈判；

提高关税，继续谈判；

暂缓关税；

达成一个原则性协议，具体细节再落实。

Tariff War Renewed? How U.S.-China Trade Talks Could Play Out

U.S., China resume talks this week under tariff-rise threat

Trump’s hawkish turn has weighed on U.S. stock markets

By?Andrew Mayeda

(Bloomberg) –?

President?Donald Trump’s latest trade gamble has set the stage for a tense round of negotiations this week between the U.S. and China that will have markets on edge.

Trump’s unpredictability was on full display on Sunday, when he took to Twitter to abruptly announce he’s increasing tariffs on Chinese goods. The U.S. says that threat was prompted by Beijing reneging over the past week on some key commitments it made during the talks.

Whether the world’s two-largest economies will sink deeper into their trade conflict may depend on negotiations Thursday and Friday, when a Chinese delegation led by Vice Premier?Liu He?will visit Washington.

Liu He in April 2019.

The hawkish turn by the U.S. has forced investors, many of whom were expecting a deal soon, to adjust their expectations. The S&P 500 Index has fallen more than 2 percent since Trump’s tweet.

“A trade deal had been priced into markets, and now we are living through the fallout of altered expectations, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see continued volatility,” said?Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist for Invesco Ltd. “We’re going to see both sides playing a game of chicken.”

Here are some of the possible outcomes from this week’s negotiations:

Tariffs Rise, Talks Continue

U.S. Trade Representative?Robert Lighthizer?said tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports will increase to 25 percent from 10 percent at 12:01 a.m. on Friday. He also indicated the U.S. wants to keep talking.

The Chinese are preparing their own retaliatory duties on U.S. imports should Trump carry out his threat, according to people familiar on the matter. But they, too, are staying at the table.

Robert Lighthizer

It’s an awkward equilibrium, but it may just hold. Neither country wants a long, bruising trade war that undermines growth. The incentive to reach a deal grows stronger by the day for Trump, who’s seeking re-election in November 2020.

“Both sides would walk away angry” if tariffs escalate this week, said Clark Packard, trade-policy counsel at the R Street Institute, a think tank in Washington. “But these two countries are the largest eco