彭博对非洲猪瘟的一个详细报导。重点在于美国和巴西的防御措施，以及，对美国业者的一个采访。我想，大部分投资者现在终于开始意识到ASF带来的后果可能远远大于一般的想象。

China Hog Scourge Profits America as Long as It Avoids Contagion

African swine fever outbreak in China a boon for U.S. exports

North American hog producers on high alert amid disease threat

By?Michael Hirtzer,?Mike Dorning?and?Ashley Robinson

(Bloomberg) –?

With the unprecedented outbreak of a deadly?pig diseasesweeping through Asia and parts of Europe, North American hog producers like David Herring are taking every precaution to keep the scourge out of their borders.

Herring won’t allow international travelers to enter his farms in North Carolina, Indiana and Illinois for at least five days after they arrive in the U.S. And then, like all farm visitors, they have to shower before walking into a barn. The goal is to keep out African swine fever, the contagious viral disease that’s forced China’s farmers to cull more than 1 million animals since August.

For Herring and other American farmers, it’s a precarious balancing act. The pig pandemic means big demand for North American exports as hog herds are decimated in China, the world’s largest pork producer and consumer. But if even one pig is infected in the U.S., foreign buyers likely would quickly ban pork shipments, potentially causing prices to plunge.

“When they announced the first case, it was a whole new world for pig farming,” said Herring, who produces about 700,000 hogs annually and is also president of the National Pork Producers Council. Now, “it’s in half the world’s pigs. It will create a lot of opportunity for U.S. pork to sell more product, but it does put all of our pork producers at risk.”

Humans can’t be infected, but pig populations can be wiped out from African swine fever, known as ASF. The disease has been around since the early 1900s, but there’s never been a reported U.S. case. So far, American pork producers have seen a boon.

Chicago hog futures for June delivery have surged more than 30 percent since Aug. 1. Shares of Brazil’s meat giant JBS SA more than doubled in that time. Meanwhile, Matt Riddleberger, vice president of supply chain for U.S. sandwich restaurant Firehouse Subs, said he’s already locked in ham needs for the year and is considering hedging 2020 prices earlier than normal as increased shipments to China could make domestic supplies more expensive. Earlier this month, China made its biggest-ever?purchase?of American pork.

“We could be looking at some pretty hefty increases next year if we don’t get our arms around this,” Riddleberger said.

What Bloomberg Intelligence Says

“Emphasizing potential further upside, the recent recovery in lean-hog prices has only returned the market to the halfway point of the 2014-16 decline. Increased U.S. exports could be inevitable as African swine fever in China reduces supply.”

— Mike McGlone, commodity analyst

Click here?to view the research

Fortunes could quickly reverse if the disea