欧元区经济的确有一个复苏的可能性，但是这种复苏，是来自全球经济在中国引导下的复苏。可以平掉欧元的空头仓位了。

Euro’s Fortunes Renewed as Spring Brings Economic Green Shoots

Currency to rally to $1.18 as China lifts Europe: UBS, Morgan

Options market signals least bearish euro view in 11 months

By?Anooja Debnath

(Bloomberg) –?

The euro’s stagnant start to the year might be ending as signs emerge that Europe’s economic growth is reviving.

Traders are unwinding bets against the common currency in the options market, with a gauge of sentiment and positioning over one year now the least negative in 11 months. Europe’s recovering economy, coupled with optimism surrounding China’s trade, will help push the euro more than 4 percent higher in coming months, according to UBS Group AG and Morgan Stanley.

The euro has lost ground against the dollar this year and been stuck in a $1.12-$1.14 range in recent months, on fears of a recession in Germany and a dovish turn by the European Central Bank. That has undermined the forecasts of analysts who were predicting at the start of the year the common currency would gain as policy makers removed crisis-era stimulus.

“Range trading can mask an underlying build-up of pressures that get released eventually,” said UBS’ head of currency and rates strategy?Themos Fiotakis. “We acknowledge the ECB’s dovishness but are inclined to see growth, in Europe and globally, as the more forward-looking and bullish driver of the euro.”

He sees the region’s recovering data, such as retail sales and industrial production, as overshadowing ECB President Mario Draghi’s subdued rhetoric last week. The Swiss bank predicts the currency will gain to $1.18 in coming months and then end the year at $1.20. The