我最近思考的一个问题终于有个相对完整的答案，那就是如果美国发生ASF，那么，会如何影响美猪价格？这里我可以勾画出一个完整的图景了。

价格会先暴跌，然后再暴涨。

这其实很常见的反应模式。

下面这篇文章信息量很大，圈友可以认真阅读。

Examining the potential impact of African swine fever

CARLSBAD, CALIF. – During an April 10 presentation to attendees of the North American Meat Institute’s (NAMI) Meat Industry Summit, the lead executive of the National Pork Board (N.P.B.), discussed the sobering reality facing the global pork industry in the wake of African swine fever (A.S.F.) outbreaks outside of North America and the potential fallout if a case were to be discovered domestically.

William J. Even, chief executive officer of the N.P.B., an outbreak of A.S.F. in China that was announced this past August has spread across that country with devastating effects and new cases are emerging in Eastern Europe and many other countries, including Vietnam, Cambodia and South Africa. With half of the world’s hogs being produced in China, the outbreak of A.S.F. in that country is especially impactful and what it means for the global pork industry even more profound.

??

Preventing an outbreak of A.S.F. in North America is critical to the future success of the pork industry in the United States, as other countries grapple with filling the supply void created by the loss of hogs in the wake of the destructive disease.?

In terms of numbers to illustrate the scale and current and potential impact of A.S.F. in China, approximately 688 million market hogs are slaughtered in the country each year compared to about 125 million in the United States. China’s sow herd in 2018 was 44.5 million while the U.S. sow herd was 6.1 million in 2019. Estimates from China’s ministry of agriculture are for the herd there to drop by 19% this year, which equates to 136 million market hogs not being born. Approximately 30% of the country’s hogs already have died, creating a loss of 129 million market hogs.

“It’s either going to be a boom or a bust for the U.S. hog industry moving forward,” Mr. Even said, adding that about 25% of U.S. production is currently shipped to international markets.

“African swine fever is the worst possible disease in swine, in the world,” said Mr. Even, who added that based on reports from producers where outbreaks have occurred, the spread of it across facilities is comparable to hot, molten lava.

“It moves slowly through your facilities and kills everything,” he said. “Once you have it, it just devours everything in its way.”

??Bill Even, c.e.o. of the of National Pork Board, at the North American Meat Institute’s Meat Industry Summit

There is no vaccine or treatment for the disease, so sound biosecurity practices before, during and after an outbreak are critical.?When the disease broke out in China this past year, the inability to deal with it effectively at the outset hindered efforts to limit the spread.

Coping with an outbreak is a challenge on several levels, including how to disinfect facilities as well as how and if a facility should be repopulated after an outbreak. Considering what Mr. Even called the disease viral plume coming off half of the pigs in the world, the conditions are pandemic in scale.

Mr. Even stres