Dimon是我喜欢的银行家之一。他关于全球市场的警告非常值得一看。另外，他强烈看好巴西，这点也给我一些启发。

Dimon Sees Recent Volatility as Harbinger of Things to Come (1)

Liquidity’s ‘new normal’ means wilder market swings, CEO says

JPMorgan chief tempers his optimism about global economy

By?Michelle F. Davis

(Bloomberg) –?

Jamie Dimon?warned investors to get ready for more wild rides like the one that upended markets at the end of last year.

“The fourth quarter of 2018 might be a harbinger of things to come,” the chief executive officer of?JPMorgan Chase & Co.?said Thursday in his 51-page annual?letter?to shareholders. Dimon cited a raft of issues driving the more pessimistic outlook, including uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate shifts, Germany’s economic slowdown, Brexit and the U.S.-China trade spat.

Jamie Dimon

Investors face a “new normal” of liquidity constraints because of tighter regulations on banks and other market makers, Dimon said, adding that “there are growing geopolitical tensions — with less certainty around American global leadership.”

Dimon’s more cautious tone is a shift from the full-throated optimism he’s conveyed in the past few years, and even from his?last letter?in 2018, when the bank forecast billions in profits tied to rising interest rates and the U.S. tax overhaul. Investors closely parse Dimon’s letters for insights even as the CEO’s frequent public appearances mean his opinions are well known.

The annual missives have more than tripled in length since Dimon, 63, took over as CEO at the end of 2005, as he’s dedicated more space to public policy. That’s helped fuel speculation the banker plans to run for president, a suggestion he’s quick to shut down.

Recession Outlook

At JPMorgan’s?investor day?in February, the chief of the largest U.S. bank acknowledged a growing number of potential obstacles to the economy that carried his firm to record profits last year. He said the bank is “prepared for a recession” but not predicting one, and repeated that assessment in Thursday’s letter.

Dimon has often lamented the sluggish nature of the U.S. economic recovery, saying poor policy decisions are in p