澳大利亚央行的经济前景展望分析部分。澳大利亚在全球经济中有非常独特的地位，作为全球最重要的商品出口国，以及移民的热门国家，澳大利亚对商品的评估，房地产市场的景气都是非常重要的先行指标。与韩国一样，也是检验全球经济景气的重要维度。

RBA on Alert as Falling Property, Weak Incomes Threaten Spending

By?Michael Heath

(Bloomberg) — ?Australia’s central bank reaffirmed its mounting concern over the consumption outlook as households are besieged by falling property prices, weak income growth and high debt.

The Reserve Bank said while the economy was weathering the property slump, if prices declined much further then consumption could be weaker. That would “result in lower GDP growth, higher unemployment and lower inflation,” the bank said in minutes of its February policy meeting released in Sydney Tuesday.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe dumped a tightening bias in favor of a neutral policy outlook earlier this month amid increasing risks at home and abroad and a downgrade in forecast domestic economic growth. Yet he remains buoyed by resilient hiring and unemployment edging lower, suggesting faster wage growth and an uptick in inflation could still be in the offing.

“Members noted that there were significant uncertainties around the forecasts, with scenarios where an increase in the cash rate would be appropriate at some point and other scenarios where a decrease in the cash rate would be appropriate,” the central bank said.

Australia is in the unusual environment of a significant drop in Sydney and Melbourne house prices despite a record-low cash rate, solid economic growth and strong employment. The minutes said the board “spent some time” looking at a paper on the implicat