对欧洲经济的一个全面分析，值得一读。

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Just What Is Ailing the Euro Zone Economy?: Ferdinando Giugliano

There’s no single explanation, and that may be?its?weakness.By?Ferdinando Giugliano (Bloomberg Opinion) –?In the space of just two years, the euro zone has gone from the world economy’s hero?to zero. In 2017, the bloc expanded?at the fastest rate in a decade, as it benefited from a combination of booming global trade and ultra-easy monetary policy. Now, the currency union has become the prime concern for those who worry about a wider downturn. The International Monetary Fund cut its forecasts for global growth?mainly due to downward revisions?for the euro area. But look closely at the map, and the picture is much more heterogeneous than you’d think. Italy and Germany – ironically the sick man and the powerhouse of the bloc – are in trouble, with the former now officially in recession and the latter only narrowly missing one. But, elsewhere, there is no shortage of countries still growing at a decent clip. The monetary union may be down; it isn’t out. The euro zone’s most consistent surprise is Spain, which?grew by 0.7 per cent in the fourth quarter, marginally up from the 0.6 percent expansion seen in each of the previous three quarters. The country may be?headed for an election?after Pedro Sanchez’s minority government failed to secure sufficient support for its budget, but the political uncertainty has had relatively little impact. In 2018, the country expanded by less than 3 percent for the first time in four years, but growth still came in at?a decent 2.5 percent. France’s economic performance is even more surprising. The bloc’s second-largest economy has?been jolted by the protests of the gilets jaunes, which shook the political system and dented investor confidence. Yet it expanded by 0.3 percent at the end of last year, in line with the previous quarter and marginally faster than in the first two quarters of the year. Growth for the full-year came in at 1.5 percent, down from 2.3 percent in 2017. But the early signs for 2019 are positive:?The Bank of France?forecasts?the economy will expand by 0.4 percent in the first quarter.?Other countries, from north to south, also tell a more positive stor