一篇很好的分析。QE政策不仅压低了长债收益率，而且让长债收益率上行的速度低于历史可比。

Edit Macro View AlertFed QE Legacy Means Traders Underestimate Rate Path: Macro View

The long-awaited peak in US ratesis proving more elusive than ever, and traders who think otherwise should brace for borrowing costs to keep rising along with yields and the dollar.

• TheFederal Reserve’s tightening campaign is far from over as recent data suggest theUS economy is holding up well despite the recent barrage of rate hikes. Officials have been quick to warn that bigger rate increases may be needed to bringinflationto heel
• Economic signals aside, there’s another factor that argues for rates to advance further: yields are far too low, thanks to the Fed’s massive hoard of Treasuries, and this is keeping conditions loose even as officials seek to tighten policy
• The US central bank’s holdings of Treasuries may be declining at what seems to be a faster pace than during the previous tightening cycle but in absolute terms, and especially relative to the size of the bond market, the legacy of QE is now far greater
• That would then help to explain one of the more puzzlin