东欧货币主要包括匈牙利 波兰 捷克。这是我今年最看好的货币之一。下面这个分析比较靠谱的展示了东欧货币的宏观因子。

Outlook Polarized on Forint Before Hungary’s Rates: Inside CEE

ByVeronika GulyasandNetty Ismail(Bloomberg) —

The Hungarian forint remains a divisive issue for economists, who either forecast hefty gains or losses against the euro depending on their narrative. It’s been one of the most volatile currencies in the EU’s eastern fringe and is falling before the country’s rate decision today, expected to be a hold.

• EARLIER:Hungary to Hold Base Rate as Easing Bets Rise: Decision Guide
• UniCredit expects the central bank to signal that monetary policy will remain tight until disinflation starts to accelerate, which it expects to happen from June onwards
  • “In our view, the HUF remains too strong and could return close to 420 later this year,” UniCredit says in a note to investors
• Yet Goldman Sachs favors the Hungarian forint given its relatively high yield and exposure to an improvement in European growth, saidKamakshya Trivedi, head of global foreign exchange, interest rates and emerging markets strategy research, in an interview
  • Expects the currency to strengthen about 5% to around 375 against the euro
  • While challenges including high inflation, unorthodox policy and EU funding disagreements remain, the forint already embeds a “high risk premium”
• RBC will also be closely watching for any hints of the central bank potentially toning down its hawkishness
• Morgan Stanley notes that a no-change decision will likely be interpreted as marginally hawkish, with the focus on any signal of potential easing burdening the forint against euro. The central bank may test the market to gauge the reaction before ultimately de