最近美债市场的高波动性是有原因的，那就是市场并未对美国通胀前景、联储政策、美国经济前景形成一个主流偏见，才导致市场非常脆弱。这个话题我本来一直想深入分析一下，今天看到彭博一个深度报道，基本也就是我想表述的，所以转给圈友看看。另外，中国的春节放假方式实在是一个落后的农业体系，体现了不愿意与世界融入的姿态，另外，也是劳工权益缺乏保障的基本体现，因为，实际上大部分国家的劳工，都享有带薪的年假，从而没有必要挤在一起过圣诞，春节或者泼水节。

Subscribe to Week Ahead Macro EventsUS Bond Market Flouting Inflation Looks Increasingly Vulnerable

• Traders have been slashing their expectations for inflation
• Inflation-protected bond auction results show different view

ByLiz Capo McCormickandMichael MacKenzie(Bloomberg) —

There’s growing concern that the bond market has written down inflation risk too far.

A sharp decline in yields over the past two months is mainly due to falling inflation expectations. That means that so-called real yields, which are protected from inflation, have declined less than their nominal counterparts. Their lagging performance reflects shrinking demand for protection against rising prices.

The broader bond market is also signaling that a Federal Reserve policy rate peak short of 5% will be enough to cause a recession, requiring rate cuts totaling half a point during the second half of the year. Some argue there’s no longer much margin for error. A pick up in demand for this week’s auction of 10-year inflation-protected Treasury notes suggests investors are beginning to listen.

“For months now people have had the conviction that inflation is behind us and so there’s been a big rush into bonds,” saidBen Emons, senior portfolio manager at NewEdge Wealth. If China reopening causes an inflation pop or a recession doesn’t materialize, it’s going to be a problem.

The relative yields of real and nominal Treasuries reveal the expected average rates of increase for consumer prices over the term of the notes. For 10-year notes, they reached the lowest level of the past year this week, 2.09%. The five-year breakeven inflation rate dropped to 2.13%, within a basis point of last year’s low.

“In bonds our kryptonite is inflation,” saidJack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine. “Our thesis is that peak inflation is in the rear view mirror and we suspect by mid-year or later there will be evidence the economy is really weakening and inflation is melting. A lot of tightening is still set to hit the economy at a time when it is already slowing. At this point I don’t see a reason to be bearish on bonds.”

Those assumptions have helped propel the broader Treasury market to a 3.1% return so far this month, a historic rebound from last year’s 12.5% loss. Yields across the nominal curve have declined as much as 44 basis points, led by the five-year. Five- to 30-year yields are below 3.8%.

“The bond market has got off to a very hot start this year and it should cool down,” saidAlan Ruskin, chief international strategist at Deutsche Bank. “There is a constraint on how low Treasury yields can fall from here if the Fed goes to 5%.”

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