xingxf 发表于 2014-5-9 20:03
对于EG 2-step procedure,有现成的程序,ssc install egranger
EG procedure一般用于2个变量的协整检测 ...
结果如下 varsoc emp,maxlag(6) exog(cpi lgdp fem ner)
Selection-order criteria
Sample: 1986 - 2012 Number of obs = 27
+---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|lag | LL LR df p FPE AIC HQIC SBIC |
|----+----------------------------------------------------------------------|
| 0 | 100.217 .000051 -7.05308 -6.98172 -6.81311 |
| 1 | 107.496 14.56 1 0.000 .000032 -7.51826 -7.43263 -7.23029* |
| 2 | 107.759 .52464 1 0.469 .000034 -7.46362 -7.36372 -7.12766 |
| 3 | 109.648 3.7784 1 0.052 .000032 -7.52948 -7.41531 -7.14553 |
| 4 | 111.601 3.9069* 1 0.048 .00003* -7.60011 -7.47167* -7.16816 |
| 5 | 112.734 2.2645 1 0.132 .00003 -7.60991* -7.46719 -7.12997 |
| 6 | 113.27 1.0722 1 0.300 .000032 -7.57554 -7.41856 -7.04761 |
+---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
LR结果显示第四个结果p-value显示第二个lag不显著了但是第四个lag又显著,sbic显示第一个lag合适,那我是最终该用一个lag吗?