<P>出版单位:德银<BR>出版日期:2007.01.11<BR>报告的名称:德银:中国石油行业交易深度报告<BR>文件的格式:pdf<BR>页数:35页<BR>语言:英文<BR>介绍:<BR> China Petroleum Trade<BR>A race to the finish<BR>David Hurd, CFA<BR> Research Analyst<BR> (86) 10 6505 9843<BR> <a href="mailto:david.hurd@db.com" target="_blank" >david.hurd@db.com</A><BR>Apparent demand for oil heats up<BR> China's apparent demand for oil surged Y-o-Y November '06 (+16.8%) pushing up<BR> Ytd November cumulative growth to 7.4% from 6.5% previous month. Curiously<BR> enough, in its Dec. monthly publication, the IEA downgraded its expectations for<BR> China oil demand in 2006F to 5.6% from its previous 6.2% - go figure. With the<BR> recent drop in oil prices, it seems logical to us that the PRC government might be<BR> interested in topping up reserves.<BR>Looking into 2007<BR> In its December ’06 monthly oil market report, the IEA set its 2007F estimate for<BR> China oil demand at 5.4%. Over the past 5-, 10- and 20-year periods, China’s<BR> apparent demand for oil to real GDP growth has averaged 0.9x, 0.79x and 0.68x.<BR> China’s elasticity of demand for oil to real GDP growth seems to be increasing,<BR> which makes plenty of sense given the industrialization of the country. For 2007F,<BR> DB China Economist, Jun Ma, estimates real GDP growth in China at 9.5% vs.<BR> 10.5% for 2006. We suspect that China’s apparent demand growth for oil in<BR> 2007F will be roughly +7.6% or 0.8x our anticipated 2007F GDP growth rate.<BR>The 2006 – ‘07F product market<BR> Gasoline demand Ytd Nov ’06 continued to be strong (+9.4%) with an elasticity of<BR> demand to GDP of 0.9x. Over the past 5-, 10- and 20-year periods, elasticity of<BR> gasoline demand to real GDP has averaged 0.79x, 0.58x and 0.68x, respectively.<BR> We suspect that continued growth in automobile sales will support gasoline<BR> growth in 2007F. Diesel demand Ytd Nov. seems to have moderated (+6.5%),<BR> with elasticity of demand to GDP of only 0.62x vs. 1.05x, 1.04x and 0.92x over the<BR> past 5, 10 and 20 years, respectively. We suspect that high diesel prices continue<BR> to dampen spending habits of China’s 700 mln farmers. Turning to fuel oil (FO), we<BR> have been surprised at the strength in apparent FO demand (+6.5%) Ytd Nov ’06.<BR> Elasticity of demand of FO to GDP Ytd Nov ’06 has been 0.62x vs. 0.41x, 0.28x<BR> and 0.28x over the past 5, 10 and 20 years, respectively. With the electricity /<BR> energy deficits of 2003 and 2004 behind us, we suspect elasticity of FO should<BR> revert to its long-term average of 0.28x GDP.<BR>Valuation/risk<BR> We value our Asian oil stocks from DCF models. Terminal growth rates and<BR> WACC’s are company specific and as a result differ from company to company.<BR> We use a China risk-free rate of 5% and an equity premium of 6%. The principal<BR> risks to our oil company ratings are i) higher- / lower-than-anticipated oil prices, and<BR> ii) unanticipated changes in PRC oil policy.</P>
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