Eye on Obama
THEME
A Look at the Impact of Stimulus and
Presidential Spending Across Sectors
With Barack Obama set to assume the U.S. Presidency next week, we thought
it an opportune time to take a look at his expected policy priorities and the
potential investment implications. The new Congress and Administration are
expected to embark on an ambitious spending and tax agenda in 2009 that will
have ramifications for businesses across all sectors. While details of these
plans are still forthcoming, some of our macro and industry analysts have
framed the likely scenarios to give investors an early read.
The following points are highlighted herein.
■
Our Washington, D.C., team outlines the legislative outlook for 2009, starting
with a major economic stimulus bill aimed at jump-starting the economy by
creating jobs and providing benefits to middle-class taxpayers. They also
expect activity in a number of other specific areas, including regulatory
reform, energy, infrastructure spending, and tax reform.
■
Our Economics team looks at the expected policy response to the economic
crisis and the potential impact on GDP. They maintain their 2009 GDP
forecast but expect a decidedly more extreme cyclicality: the immediate
future looks much weaker and the rebound later in 2009 and into 2010 much
more pronounced.
■
Our Industrials & Alternative Energy teams frame the potential implications
of what some have coined “The New New Deal”—that is, the expected
spending and job creation related to infrastructure and increased energy
efficiency.
■
Our Financials team frames the potential regulatory impact in response to
the recent credit crisis. This covers changes in consumer protection, capital
and reserve requirements, as well as accounting policy to name a few.
■
Our Healthcare team comments on President-elect Obama’s plan to boost
Healthcare IT initiatives (such as the digitization of medical records), as well
as the reauthorization of SCHIP (State Children’s Health Insurance
Program) and the boost to matching rates for state Medicaid.
■
Finally, on the Consumer front, our Branded Footwear & Apparel team have
updated their 2009 discretionary spend analysis based on new details for the
stimulus package, changes in personal savings rates, and falling energy
prices.
Table of Contents
Legislative Outlook 2009 3
Economics 12
Alternative Energy 16
Industrials 27
Financial Services 39
Health Care Services 42
Consumer 44
Appendix 1 48
[此贴子已经被作者于2009-1-23 14:04:23编辑过]