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Regional outlook: the pendulum effect Date: 3. Feb
■ We expect 2009 to bring continued volatility for insurers as markets move like a pendulum between deflation fears and reflation optimism.
■ Against a backdrop of falling interest rates and heightened deflation concerns, we believe P&C insurers are more attractive in 1H09 give their superior balance sheet flexibility and upside risk to operating earnings. Looking beyond 1H09, life insurers will look increasingly attractive as evidence emerges of easing economic contraction risks and a firm bottom in interest rates and equity market cycles.
■ Our top picks in early 2009: In the P&C sector, we like PICC, LIG Insurance and Insurance Australia Group. In the life insurance sector, we are generally more cautious although we prefer China to Taiwan given China’s superior capital strength, cleaner balance sheets and proportionately lower legacy book risks. Within China, we prefer Ping An to China Life given Ping An’s cheaper valuation and stronger premium growth outlook.
Research Analysts
Christopher Esson
852 2101 6088
chris.esson@credit-suisse.com
Seok Yun, CFA, CA
822 3707 3730
seok.yun@credit-suisse.com
Sherry Lin
852 2101 7609
sherry.lin@credit-suisse.com
Arjan van Veen
612 8205 4537
arjan.vanveen@credit-suisse.com
Chung Hsu, CFA
8862 2715 6362
chung.hsu@credit-suisse.com
Frances Feng
852 2101 6693
frances.feng@credit-suisse.com
Jihyun Cho
822 3707 3765
jihyun.cho@credit-suisse.com
Julie Yu
8862 2715 6363
julie.yu@credit-suisse.com
Jumana Nahhas
612 8205 4106
jumana.nahhas@credit-suisse.com
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[此贴子已经被作者于2009-2-4 10:43:18编辑过]