[其他] 2010年2季度全球金融市场研究报告 [推广有奖]

【出版时间及名称】：2010年2季度全球金融市场研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：68
        【目录或简介】：
The global recovery will be maintained in 2010, lifting GDP at an above-trend
3.4% pace. The booming recovery in manufacturing will broaden to the service
sector. The US will continue to outperform most other developed economies,
reflecting more aggressive policy support and previous corporate cost-cutting.
The EM will lead the recovery as strengthening external demand boosts exports
while highly accommodative policies and generally healthy banking sectors
support domestic demand.
• A continued positive feedback loop between financial markets, confidence, and
consumer and business spending will drive the expansion in 2010. As fiscal
stimulus wanes, improving labor markets that generate sizable gains in wage income
and ongoing monetary stimulus will support final demand growth. Ongoing household
deleveraging, corporate caution, and lingering banking problems in the US and
Europe will keep the global recovery modest relative to the depth of the downturn.
• Massive output gaps will reduce developed market core inflation to 0.5%oya in
2010. This will prompt the Fed, ECB, and BoJ to leave policy rates on hold.
Disinflation pressures are more limited in the EM, where there is less slack. EM
policymakers will normalize cautiously; they are skeptical about the G-3 economic
recovery and do not want to add to upward pressure on FX rates.
• The FX recovery trade faltered in midwinter. EUR and high-beta G-10 currencies
were weighed down versus USD and JPY by concerns about Euro-area sovereign
risk, policy tightening in China, and soft data, but Greece’s aggressive budget cuts
and healthier data already have turned the tide in risk sentiment.
• We forecast a broad USD sell-off in the spring and summer followed by a rebound
in the fall. The global upturn and strong profits will feed US cyclical capital
outflows, and the Fed’s low-for-long policy encourages use of USD as a funding
currency. But, shifting Fed rhetoric and liquidity withdrawals should prompt a
USD rally in the fall and early 2011. With the BoJ lagging the global tightening
cycle, rising capital outflows will undercut JPY in 2011. GBP likely will underperform,
as a hung parliament breeds policy uncertainty, and continue to do so in 2011 amid
budget cuts and private sector deleveraging. As global growth underpins commodity
prices, commodity FX will continue to outperform, led by AUD and CAD.
• We expect US Treasury yields to drift higher as QE draws to a close and seasonal
patterns play out. We target 2-year yields at 1.25% by midyear and 10s at 4.10%,
and we expect the curve to flatten gradually over the course of the year.
• EM FX appreciation should endure through end-2010 as central banks tighten.
EM growth is on track to reach 6.1%, above our 5.5% estimate for the long-term
potential GDP growth rate, and 3.5%-pts higher than G-7 growth. Both EM Asia
(7.9%) and Latin America (4.6%) are forecast to grow by more than 1%-pt above
their potential growth rates; CEEMEA will grow slightly below potential at 4.2%.
Watch rising inflation in EM, particularly in Asia and Latin America. Strong growth
and increasing inflation pressures are prompting EM central banks to tighten
monetary policy well ahead of their G-3 counterparts. We expect rate hikes in Brazil,
China, India, Israel, Malaysia, Peru, the Philippines, and Thailand by June.
• We are overall positive on commodities. The outlook for energy turns more
bullish in 2Q, when we expect an acceleration in price gains. We hold a positive
view on base and precious metals in 1H, but do not expect further price
appreciation in 2H as funding costs should start to rise.

Table of Contents
Global economics overview 3
G-10 FX outlook 12
Exchange rate forecasts 13
FX tail risks and outlier views 14
G-10 fair-value exchange rates update 16
Emerging Markets outlook 17
Commodity markets outlook 18
Fixed income outlook 20
Global 21
The Americas
United States 22
Canada 23
Argentina 24
Brazil 25
Chile 26
Colombia 27
Ecuador 28
Mexico 29
Peru 30
Venezuela 31
Asia/Pacific
Australia 32
New Zealand 33
Japan 34
China 35
Hong Kong 36
India 37
Indonesia 38
Malaysia 39
Philippines 40
Singapore 41
South Korea 42
Taiwan 43
Thailand 44
Western Europe
Euro area 45
Norway 46
Sweden 47
Switzerland 48
United Kingdom 49
Emerging Europe
Czech Republic 50
Hungary 51
Poland 52
Romania 53
Russia 54
Turkey 55
Africa/Middle East
Israel 56
South Africa 57
Global forecasts
Real GDP
– quarter-on-quarter 58
– over year ago 59
Private consumption 60
Fixed investment 61
Industrial production
– quarter-on-quarter, saar 62
– over year ago 63
Consumer prices 64
J.P. Morgan effective exchange rate indices 65
Basic economic statistics
International comparisons 66
Economic outlook in summary 68