报告名称：GF Securities(01776.HK)Research Tactical Idea
报告类型：港股研究
报告日期：2016-03-21
研究机构：摩根士丹利
股票名称：广发证券
股票代码：000776,01776
页数：7
简介：We believe the share price will rise relative to the industry over the next 60days.
We believe GF's share price will increase because: 1) We prefer brokers overbanks given more direct near-term benefits and lower long-term negativeimpact from over-loosening; 2) the CSFC's recent announcement aboutresumption of refinancing business could trigger a rebound in official marginloans and OTC leverage; 3) GF had relatively high revenue contribution frombrokerage business among brokers under our coverage as of 2015.
We estimate that there is about a 70% to 80% (or "very likely") probability forthe scenario.
Estimated probabilities are illustrative and assigned subjectively based on ourassessment of the likelihood of the scenario.

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