[讨论]中國經濟並未過熱 中英文对照

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由于本人翻译水平有限，而且翻译的时候使用的是翻译软件，之后在修正，因此准确性上可能会有问题，并且可能会带有个人观点，所以希望英文好的朋友去看英文原文．　欢迎讨论．　另外申明本人也赞同这一观点．因为中国必须要有足够的经济增长速度去解决中国目前所面临的问题．基本上在国外的主流分析都认为，中国的经济增长速度必须维持在７％到９％的水平．

中國經濟並未過熱

Jonathan Anderson

一夜之間﹐中國經濟再次成為人們關注的焦點。本月公佈的令人瞠目的經濟增長數據讓投資者擔心﹐如果這種高速增長步伐不能在短時間內得到遏制﹐中國政府可能被迫採取更強硬的措施﹐從而導致經濟出現另一輪下跌。所幸﹐目前的情況還未糟糕到那種程度。

首先﹐在數字方面：根據本週公佈的官方數據﹐2006年上半年中國經濟經通貨膨脹因素調整後較上年同期增長近11%。同期的固定資產投資增長了30%以上。與此同時﹐貨幣供應量快速增長﹐這顯示對信貸的需求增強了﹐潛在的投資壓力加大了。部分高端房地產市場價格大幅上漲。

China's Economy Is Hot, Not Overheated 對此﹐中國政府加大了調控力度以降低經濟增長速度。在兩個月的時間里﹐政府兩次上調存款準備金率、一次上調利率﹐並對房地產等行業採取了行政控制措施。上週﹐中國總理溫家寶在國務院會議上警告說﹐經濟增長“過熱”﹐要採取“有力措施”抑制房地產等固定資產的泡沫化增長。

但投資者可能會從這些行動中獲得錯誤的信息。在中國經濟2002-2003年的高速增長時期﹐根據最可靠的數據﹐我們估計經通貨膨脹因素調整後的GDP增幅超過了12%﹐遠遠高於官方公佈的9.1%。在2006年上半年﹐我們的方法顯示GDP增幅約為10.7%﹐同上週公佈的官方數據基本一致。官方數據顯示﹐自2003年以來﹐經濟增長速度提高了兩個百分點﹐而我們的數據則顯示﹐同期的增長速度總共下降了一個百分點。

這中間的差異主要應歸因於中國官方統計方式的改變。在過去兩年間﹐中國政府鼓勵國家統計局(National Bureau of Statistics)提供更加準確的經濟報告﹐增長速度明顯提高只是說明了這些數據更為真實──儘管非常強勁﹐但仍低於幾年前時過熱的水平。同樣的推斷也適用於中國的月度固定資產投資數據。一旦把在總額中比重日益加大的資產出售和交易額去除掉﹐我們估計的增長率應為15%──只有官方公佈的30%增幅的一半。這一數據再度說明﹐經濟在快速增長﹐但還沒有達到過熱的危險水平。

幾乎所有能獲得的統計數據都支持這個結論。中國目前的銀行信貸增幅接近15%﹐但2003年年中時這個數字更高。中國的進口增長率高達20%﹐但在2003年初時最高增幅曾達到近50%。利潤、庫存、能源消耗和建築數據等等都顯示目前的經濟較3年前發展更平衡﹐增長更溫和。

事實上﹐我們認為中國當前最大的不平衡在於其不斷增長的貿易順差──這通常是國內需求疲軟的信號﹐也是工業產能過剩的反映。貿易順差的增長會讓中國政府更迫切地希望增加國內支出﹐以避免國內出現流動資金過剩的局面﹐政府為維持匯率穩定而不斷加大外匯干預力度是導致這種局面的誘因。

對中國的決策者來說﹐目前擔心的另一個問題是高端住宅市場的投機行為：以前是上海和天津﹐現在是北京、深圳和大連。這些城市的房地產價格大幅上揚﹐並在很大程度上是靠銀行貸款來支撐的。但這些大城市只佔中國大陸房地產市場的一小部分﹐豪宅也只佔這些城市總建築的很小一部分。全國住宅及商業地產的價格比去年上漲了6%。這個速度大大低於家庭年收入的增幅﹐更不用說實際的GDP增幅了﹐這說明中國人對房價的承受能力在不斷增加──決策者對此不必過於擔憂。

中國經濟的高速增長是顯而易見的﹐政府希望遏制經濟繼續高速增長的決心也無庸置疑。但在我們預測是否需要採取更多行動前﹐應該先觀察中國政府最近採取的經濟緊縮措施的效果如何。不過﹐最近的經濟數據並未顯示中國經濟正在失去控制。這個消息會讓中國乃至其它各國的領導人晚上睡的更安穩一些。

China's Economy Is Hot, Not Overheated

Suddenly, the Chinese economy is back at the forefront of attention. Eye-popping economic growth figures released this month have investors worrying that if the breakneck pace isn't reined in soon, Beijing will be forced to take aggressive action, forcing yet another sharp downturn. Thankfully, the situation isn't nearly that bad.

First, the headline numbers: According to official data released this week, the Chinese economy grew by nearly 11% in inflation-adjusted terms in the first half of 2006, compared to the same period last year. Fixed investment expenditure rose by more than 30% over the same period. Meanwhile, money supply is increasing rapidly, indicating stronger demand for credit, and potentially higher investment pressure. Selected, high-end property market prices are rising dramatically.

In response, the Chinese government has redoubled efforts to slow the free-wheeling growth. Two bank reserve requirement hikes, an interest rate increase, and administrative controls on property and other sectors have been implemented within the last two months alone. Last week, Premier Wen Jiabao warned the State Council that the economy was 'overheating,' and that bubble-growth in fixed assets like real estate needed to undergo 'forceful' curbing.

But investors may take away the wrong message from these actions. At the height of China's 'runaway' 2002-03 boom, using the best available data, we estimated inflation-adjusted GDP growth above 12% -- far above the official reported figure of 9.1%. In the first half of 2006, our methodology shows GDP growth of around 10.7% -- virtually identical to the official number reported last week. The official data show an economic acceleration of two percentage points since 2003, while our numbers show an aggregate slowdown of one percentage point over the same period, as the nearby graph shows.

The differential can be explained by the changes to China's official statistics. Over the past two years, the Chinese government has encouraged more accurate economic reporting by the National Bureau of Statistics, and the apparent acceleration could be nothing more than a move towards more realistic growth numbers -- numbers that are very strong, of course, but still less overheated than a few years ago. The same reasoning applies to China's monthly fixed asset investment figure. Once the growing share of asset sales and trading are stripped out, we estimated a growth rate of 15% -- only half as high as China's official 30% number. Again, the data imply a fast-growing economy, but not a dangerously overheating one.

Nearly all of the available statistics support that conclusion. Mainland bank credit growth is growing at a nearly 15% rate today, compared with a year ago, but that number was far higher in mid-2003. China's import growth of 20% might look impressive, but imports increased by nearly 50% at the earlier 2003 peak. Profits, inventories, energy usage, and construction figures, among others, show an economy that is more balanced and less feverish than three years ago.

Indeed, the largest imbalance we see in China today is the ever-rising trade surplus, which is normally a sign of weak domestic demand, as well as industrial oversupply. A rising trade surplus may give Beijing a strong incentive to keep domestic spending buoyant, to avoid a massive inflow of domestic liquidity, thanks to ever-larger foreign exchange interventions aimed at keeping the exchange rate stable.

Another recent concern for Chinese policy makers is the handful of speculative high-end residential niche markets: formerly Shanghai and Tianjin, and now Beijing, Shenzhen and Dalian. Prices here are increasing rapidly, and are highly dependent on bank credit. But these first-tier cities only account for a small fraction of the mainland property market, and luxury housing is only a small fraction of these cities' total construction. Nationwide residential and commercial property prices are rising at a 6% pace this year, compared to last year. That's much slower than annual household income growth, not to mention actual GDP growth, implying that housing affordability in China is rising over time -- hardly the sort of thing policy makers need to worry about.

It's clear that China's economic growth is speedy, and equally clear that the government has a real interest in avoiding a further acceleration. But the impact of Beijing's recent economic tightening measures needs to take effect before we can predict whether more action is needed. Still, recent economic data offer no evidence to suggest that China's economy is spinning out of control. That's some news that lets both China's and the world's leaders sleep a little easier at night.

本文作者喬納森•安德森(Jonathan Anderson)為瑞銀亞洲首席經濟學家。

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