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摘要翻译：
在这篇论文中，我们分析了在风疹处于地方性稳定状态的以前没有接种过疫苗的人群中引入一个非常特殊的疫苗接种计划后，风疹感染和发病率的年龄依赖性的时间演变。我们推导出一个与年龄相关的感染力的积分方程，该方程依赖于许多参数，这些参数可以从疫苗接种计划之前的稳态感染力中估计出来。我们给出了我们的模拟结果，并与观测数据进行了比较。我们还研究了社区成员之间的接触模式对风疹传播的年龄依赖性强度和疫苗接种策略结果的影响。作为所提出的理论的一个例子，我们计算了来自Caieiras（巴西）、Huixquilucan（墨西哥）、芬兰和英国的四个社区的疫苗接种策略的效果。在没有接种疫苗的情况下，根据不同的传播强度和模式，每个社区的结果有很大不同。我们的结论是，这种简单的疫苗接种计划在根除疾病的目标上不是很有效（很慢）。这支持了由Massad等人提出、巴西圣保罗州政府接受和实施的混合战略。
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英文标题：
《Vaccination against rubella: Analysis of the temporal evolution of the
age-dependent force of infection and the effects of different contact
patterns》
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作者：
M. Amaku, F. A. B. Coutinho, R. S. Azevedo, M. N. Burattini, L. F.
Lopez, E. Massad
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最新提交年份：
2009
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分类信息：
一级分类：Quantitative Biology 数量生物学
二级分类：Other Quantitative Biology 其他定量生物学
分类描述：Work in quantitative biology that does not fit into the other q-bio classifications
不适合其他q-bio分类的定量生物学工作
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一级分类：Quantitative Biology 数量生物学
二级分类：Populations and Evolution 种群与进化
分类描述：Population dynamics, spatio-temporal and epidemiological models, dynamic speciation, co-evolution, biodiversity, foodwebs, aging; molecular evolution and phylogeny; directed evolution; origin of life
种群动力学；时空和流行病学模型；动态物种形成；协同进化；生物多样性；食物网；老龄化；分子进化和系统发育；定向进化；生命起源
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英文摘要：
In this paper, we analyze the temporal evolution of the age-dependent force of infection and incidence of rubella, after the introduction of a very specific vaccination programme in a previously nonvaccinated population where rubella was in endemic steady state. We deduce an integral equation for the age-dependent force of infection, which depends on a number of parameters that can be estimated from the force of infection in steady state prior to the vaccination program. We present the results of our simulations, which are compared with observed data. We also examine the influence of contact patterns among members of a community on the age-dependent intensity of transmission of rubella and on the results of vaccination strategies. As an example of the theory proposed, we calculate the effects of vaccination strategies for four communities from Caieiras (Brazil), Huixquilucan (Mexico), Finland and the United Kingdom. The results for each community differ considerably according to the distinct intensity and pattern of transmission in the absence of vaccination. We conclude that this simple vaccination program is not very efficient (very slow) in the goal of eradicating the disease. This gives support to a mixed strategy, proposed by Massad et al., accepted and implemented by the government of the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/0906.0917
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