《Endogenous Derivation and Forecast of Lifetime PDs》
---
作者:
Volodymyr Perederiy
---
最新提交年份:
2020
---
英文摘要:
This paper proposes a simple technical approach for the analytical derivation of Point-in-Time PD (probability of default) forecasts, with minimal data requirements. The inputs required are the current and future Through-the-Cycle PDs of the obligors, their last known default rates, and a measurement of the systematic dependence of the obligors. Technically, the forecasts are made from within a classical asset-based credit portfolio model, with the additional assumption of a simple (first/second order) autoregressive process for the systematic factor. This paper elaborates in detail on the practical issues of implementation, especially on the parametrization alternatives. We also show how the approach can be naturally extended to low-default portfolios with volatile default rates, using Bayesian methodology. Furthermore, expert judgments on the current macroeconomic state, although not necessary for the forecasts, can be embedded into the model using the Bayesian technique. The resulting PD forecasts can be used for the derivation of expected lifetime credit losses as required by the newly adopted accounting standard IFRS 9. In doing so, the presented approach is endogenous, as it does not require any exogenous macroeconomic forecasts, which are notoriously unreliable and often subjective. Also, it does not require any dependency modeling between PDs and macroeconomic variables, which often proves to be cumbersome and unstable.
---
中文摘要:
本文提出了一种分析推导时间点违约概率(PD)预测的简单技术方法,只需最少的数据要求。所需的输入是债务人当前和未来整个周期的违约概率、其最后已知的违约率,以及债务人系统依赖性的度量。从技术上讲,这些预测是在经典的基于资产的信贷组合模型中进行的,并附加了一个简单(一阶/二阶)的系统因素自回归过程的假设。本文详细阐述了实现的实际问题,尤其是参数化方案。我们还展示了如何使用贝叶斯方法将该方法自然地扩展到违约率波动的低违约投资组合。此外,专家对当前宏观经济状况的判断,虽然不是预测所必需的,但可以使用贝叶斯技术嵌入到模型中。由此产生的PD预测可用于推导新采用的会计准则IFRS 9所要求的预期终身信用损失。在这样做的过程中,所提出的方法是内生的,因为它不需要任何外生宏观经济预测,而外生宏观经济预测众所周知是不可靠的,而且往往是主观的。此外,它不需要在PDs和宏观经济变量之间建立任何依赖关系模型,这通常被证明是繁琐且不稳定的。
---
分类信息:
一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:Risk Management 风险管理
分类描述:Measurement and management of financial risks in trading, banking, insurance, corporate and other applications
衡量和管理贸易、银行、保险、企业和其他应用中的金融风险
--
一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:Economics 经济学
分类描述:q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学,包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
--
一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:Pricing of Securities 证券定价
分类描述:Valuation and hedging of financial securities, their derivatives, and structured products
金融证券及其衍生产品和结构化产品的估值和套期保值
--
一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:Statistical Finance 统计金融
分类描述:Statistical, econometric and econophysics analyses with applications to financial markets and economic data
统计、计量经济学和经济物理学分析及其在金融市场和经济数据中的应用
--
---
PDF下载:
-->