资金流动性与制造业产能利用率周期波动的关联性研究 ——基于频谱分析的视角
【摘要】本文利用时间序列谱分析、互谱分析对 1999 年至 2006 年资金流动性与制造业各 行业产能利用率序列波动的基本特征进行描述,结果表明,周期波动现象不仅在资金流动性与 制造业产能利用率中普遍存在,而且两者的波动具有紧密的联系。继而合成先行、一致与滞后 指数与经济周期循环序列比较分析得出:资金流动性是伴随宏观经济波动的周期性现象,这种 状态的发生是微观经济主体行为作用的综合结果。
关键词 流动性过剩 产能利用率 谱分析 互谱分析
Periodical Fluctuations of Capital Liquidity and Capacity Utilization of Manufacturing Industries: Based on Spectral Analysis Abstract : We analyze the fluctuation of capital liquidity and capacity utilization of manufacturing industries using time series from 1999 to 2006 in frequency domain. We find that the periodical fluctuation exists not only in the capital liquidity but also in the capacity utilization of manufacturing industries and there is close relationship between these two series. And then we utilized the composite index method to discuss the rule of capital liquidity and business cycle. The result shows that liquidity is a cyclical phenomenon along with the fluctuation of economy which is a composite result of microeconomic behaviors. Keywords:Capital liquidity;Capacity utilization;Spectral analysis;Cross-spectral analysis
|