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中国经济有望软着陆？ Sombre signs for China growth
英国《金融时报》 吉密欧 北京报道

By the standards of almost any economy, the 8.9 per cent annual growth rate China notched up in the fourth quarter last year would be a success. Yet the mood in Beijing yesterday was sombre as the government announced its lowest increase in gross domestic product in 10 quarters.	按照几乎所有经济体的标准，中国经济去年第四季度实现的8.9%的同比增长都堪称成功。可在昨日的北京，人们却情绪低落，ZF公布的数据显示，中国国内生产总值(GDP)出现10个季度以来的最小增幅。
China entered 2011 with a growth rate of 9.7 per cent in the first quarter and a government focused on tackling inflation, but ended it with a full-year GDP increase of 9.2 per cent, the same rate as in crisis-hit 2009 – the lowest level since 2002.	进入2011年之后，中国在首季度实现9.7%的经济增长，ZF则聚焦于遏制通胀。但在告别2011年之际，中国全年GDP增长率为9.2%，与遭受危机打击的2009年一样，同为2002年以来的最低水平。
At first glance, the slowdown – to 9.5 per cent in the second quarter, 9.1 per cent in the third and now 8.9 per cent in the fourth – is exactly Beijing’s target for last year, especially as annualised inflation peaked at 6.5 per cent in July and was down to 4.1 per cent by the end of December.	乍看之下，经济放缓（第二季度增幅降至9.5%，第三季度降至9.1%，第四季度又降至8.9%）正是北京方面去年想要达到的目标，尤其是鉴于通胀年率在去年7月达到6.5%的顶峰，而到了12月底已回落至4.1%。
However, at a press conference to set out the figures, the National Bureau of Statistics expressed concerns that things were likely to get worse. “In terms of the domestic and international situation 2012 will be a year of complexity and challenges so we should be fully prepared,” said spokesman Ma Jiantang in a speech laced with words such as “gloomy”, “complicated” and “severe”.	但中国国家统计局(NBS)却在公布数据的新闻发布会上，对形势可能恶化表示出了担忧。“2012年，无论从国际经济环境还是国内环境来看，都是极其复杂、极具挑战性的一年，要增强忧患意识，”国家统计局局长马建堂表示。他在讲话中多次用到“忧患”、“复杂”和“严峻”等词语。
Most analysts, whether bullish or bearish on China’s longer-term prospects, expect growth to drop back in the coming months, to well below an annualised rate of 8 per cent in the first quarter. Some are even predicting full-year growth as low as 7.5 per cent in 2012.	多数分析师（无论其对中国较长期前景持乐观还是持悲观看法）预期，中国经济增速将在未来几个月进一步下降，今年首季度的同比增幅将降至8%以下。某些人甚至预计，2012年中国只能实现7.5%的全年经济增幅。
Yet for nearly a decade the Communist party has formulated economic policy on the assumption that 8 per cent GDP growth is the minimum needed to stave off the social instability that could threaten one-party rule. As the economy decelerates, the government appears to be rethinking that formula, although not the underlying assumption.	可是近10年来，中共一直是基于一个假设制定经济政策的。这个假设是，8%的GDP增幅，是防范出现可能危及一党制的社会不稳定的最低要求。随着经济逐步减速，ZF似乎在反思这个公式，尽管上述根本假设不在反思之列。
In comments reported last week, Yu Yongding, an academic economist and adviser to the government, said GDP growth of 7-8 per cent would be acceptable, but below 7 per cent would signal an economic crisis, or even a political crisis.	据媒体报道，中国社会科学院学部委员、中国ZF顾问余永定上周发表评论称，7%至8%的GDP增长是可以接受的，但低于7%将是爆发经济危机甚至政治危机的信号。
“The authorities are clearly still trying to navigate between the twin dangers of overstimulating the economy again and causing the current slowdown to sharpen dangerously,” said Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered. “Many officials are of the view that the economy needs to be deleveraged and China needs to get used to a slower growth rate.”	“官方显然仍在努力从两重危险之间寻找出路，一重是再次过度刺激经济，另一重是导致当前的放缓加剧到危险程度，”渣打银行(Standard Chartered)经济学家王志浩(Stephen Green)表示。“许多官员的观点是，中国经济需要降低杠杆率，中国需要适应较低的增长率。”
Indications are that the pace of China’s slowdown is still within the government’s comfort zone and most economists believe Beijing will be able to engineer a “soft landing” to a lower long-term growth rate above that new level.	各种迹象表明，迄今中国经济放缓的节奏仍在ZF的舒适区内，多数经济学家相信，北京方面能够策划一场“软着陆”，实现高于上述新水平的较低的长期增长率。
The deceleration has been gradual and largely the result of measures to rein in credit and cool surging inflation. However, while Beijing was able to mount a Rmb4tn stimulus package aimed at countering the effects of the global economic crisis three years ago, it is not in a position to repeat that feat today.	迄今中国经济的减速是和缓的，而且在很大程度上是旨在遏制信贷、抑制通胀飙升的各种措施的结果。不过，尽管北京方面三年前能够拿出一套4万亿元人民币的刺激计划来抵消全球经济危机的效应，但目前的形势却使中国官方无法重演这一壮举。
“The probability and likely effectiveness of a big stimulus is much lower now as the government is still dealing with the hang over from the last round of stimulus,” said Huang Yiping, chief China economist at Barclay’s Capital. He believes Beijing will be able to achieve just above 8 per cent growth in 2012 but sees risks to that forecast.	“大规模刺激计划的出台几率和潜在有效性现在低得多，因为ZF仍在对付上一轮刺激的后遗症，”巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)首席中国经济学家黄益平表示。黄益平相信，北京方面能够在2012年实现略高于8%的经济增长，但他认为这个预测数字面临一些风险。
“China has very heavily indebted local governments and has seen an extraordinary credit expansion that contributed to large asset bubbles, particularly in housing, over the last few years,” he said.	“中国有很多背负沉重债务的地方ZF，而且经历了一场不寻常的信贷扩张，后者在近几年助长了较大的资产泡沫，尤其是在住房领域，”他表示。
The biggest risks to the economy come from the two sectors that have been driving growth in China for the past decade – exports and residential real estate.	中国经济面临的最大风险，源自10年来推动中国增长的两个行业：出口和住宅地产。
Exports to both the US and Europe slowed in the fourth quarter last year and are expected to reduce a lot more, particularly to Europe. A correction in the residential real estate market appears to be under way after nearly two years of government policies aimed at reining in soaring house prices.	去年第四季度中国对美国和欧洲的出口均有所放缓，而且预期还将进一步大幅下降，尤其是对欧洲的出口。在ZF推行相关政策以遏制房价飙升近两年后，楼市似乎正在回调。
Residential housing floor space under construction fell 25 per cent in December, while floor space sold fell 8.4 per cent from a year earlier, compared with average growth of 12.9 per cent in the third quarter of 2011.	去年12月住宅开工面积下降25%，而住宅销售面积同比下降8.4%，与2011年第三季度平均12.9%的增幅形成对比。
Real estate investment directly accounts for about 13 per cent of GDP so a collapse in the sector would have repercussions, not just in China but for commodity-exporting countries that rely on Chinese construction for their own growth.	房地产投资直接占中国GDP大约13%，因此该行业若发生崩盘，将会产生冲击波，不仅影响中国，还将殃及大宗商品出口国——这些国家依赖中国建筑业实现自身增长。
With its engines of growth sputtering, it seems the best the government can hope for is a gradual and orderly deceleration.	在两大增长发动机噼啪作响、似乎要抛锚之际，看来中国ZF能够指望的最好结果就是经济逐渐、有序地减速。
	译者/和风

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关键词：中国经济 软着陆 deceleration Construction Residential 北京 情绪低落 government 中国经济 yesterday

好文章，学习下

软着陆？哈哈