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China's princelings
Grappling in the dark
BEIJING
A cloud descends over the Communist Party's su ccession plans
ON HIS visit to America this week China's vice-president, Xi]inping, serenely played the role his aides had scripted for
him as the country's leader-in-waiting, charming his hosts but revealing little (seeLexington, page 36). At home, however, the
Communist Party's plans for a sweeping shuffle of its hierarchy later this year were beginning to appear less orderly.
There remains little doubt that Mr Xi will take over from Hu]intao as party chief at a five-yearly congress to be held sometime
in the autumn. But the prospects of another aspirant to top office, Bo Xilai (pictured above), have been overshadowed.
On February 6th his one-time right-hand man, Wang Lijun, fled to the American consulate in the city of Chengdu. Mr Wang
stayed inside for a day before walking out into the hands of Chinese security officials, who are believed to have taken him
to Beijing. Little is known about what prompted Mr Wang to make the 34okm (210 mile) drive to Chengdu from Chongqing, a province-sized municipality where Mr Bo, known as an urbane populist, is party chief and the dour Mr Wang is a deputy
mayor. Most analysts believe that Mr Wang's removal from his other post as police chief five days earlier signalled a falling-
out between the two men. One popular explanation for this is that Mr Bo wanted to distance himself from Mr Wang,
who- rumour has it- was being investigated for corruption. So far, Mr Bo has appeared unruffled. He attended a scheduled meeting on February 11th with Canada's visiting prime minister, Stephen Harper, as well as gatherings
of senior officials. But if, as is possible, Mr Wang tries to defend his actions by claiming persecution and by levelling accusations
against Mr Bo, or if Mr Wangn turns out not to be the superhero policeman of his public image, the case would
have big political ramifications. Mr Bo is a former minister of commerce and considered to be one of China's more
charismatic senior leaders. Before last week, he was thought likely to be promoted to the Politburo's nine-member standing
committee in the autumn. His failure to gain a seat would be a blow to two influential political camps. One is a group made
up of the "old left" who lament the passing of Maoism, and the "new left", who want to restore some of Mao's more workerfriendly policies. This group extols Chongqing as a model of the way the country should be run. It admires Mr Bo
for his heavy spending on social housing and on education and health care for migrants. The old left likes Mr Bo's attempts to
revive "red culture", including the singing of old revolutionary songs, and his fierce campaign (carried out by Mr Wang)
against corruption and organised crime. The other, more disparate, camp is that of "second-generation reds", as the offspring
of old revolutionaries are often called. Mr Bo is one of the most prominent and charismatic of these "princelings", as
they are more disparagingly known. (Mr Xi also belongs to this group, though it is unlikely that Mr Bo's troubles would affect
him.) Kenneth Lieberthal of the Brookings Institution, an American think-tank, says it is possible that leaders at the top are trying
to rein in Mr Bo because they do not like his very public grandstanding.
Liberals in China are crowing over Mr Bo's plight because of what they see as his trampling on legal procedures during his
anti-mafia campaign, as well as the chilling reminders his "red songs" convey of Mao's totalitarianism. But party leaders in
Beijing will have to tread carefully. They do not want wider questioning of the princelings' right to rule. And they do not want to
precipitate unrest. Mr Bo is popular in Chongqing, and more broadly elsewhere among the urban poor. The old left command
loyal, if scattered, followings among workers laid off from state-owned enterprises in many cities. Maoist websites in
China have been fuming about what they describe as attacks by unnamed "treacherous officials" on Mr Bo and Mr Wan g.
Chinese leaders have another good reason to keep the lid on their differences. The last succession process a decade ago was
the first orderly one in the history of Communist Party rule in China. The party is eager to convince the world that power transfers have become a smooth ten-yearly routine. It has dismissed Mr Wang's bizarre dash to the consulate as an "isolated" incident. Officials are doubtless relieved that their American counterparts are keeping quiet about what they learned during Mr Wang's visit. ?
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