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citigroup 花旗：人民币的升值与失衡
02-Feb-07 7页 英文
Macro China：The Rising RMB and Imbalances
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The fundamental solution for external imbalances may depend on consumption escalation, but currency appreciation is likely the necessary remedy to stabilize the external account. We continue to expect the CNY/USD to rise to 7.33 by year-end with a widened trading band early this year
Accelerating currency appreciation will gradually add pressure on export growth. This may not reduce the trade surplus immediately given the difficulty to promote imports
Export growth was largely driven by the quantity, not the price, of export goods, suggesting that the rising RMB did not attract larger inflows of speculative funds in 2006
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