VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria
Endogenous variables: LNGDP LNEX LNIM
Exogenous variables: C
Date: 09/28/12 Time: 10:39
Sample: 1990 2011
Included observations: 18
Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ
0 -8.029605 NA 0.000684 1.225512 1.373907 1.245973
1 72.56553 125.3702 2.45e-07 -6.729503 -6.135922 -6.647657
2 83.89941 13.85251 2.11e-07 -6.988823 -5.950056 -6.845591
3 106.5340 20.11962* 6.22e-08* -8.503775 -7.019823* -8.299158
4 117.1275 5.885263 1.07e-07 -8.680828* -6.751689 -8.414826*
* indicates lag order selected by the criterion
LR: sequential modified LR test statistic (each test at 5% level)
FPE: Final prediction error
AIC: Akaike information criterion
SC: Schwarz information criterion
HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion
请问各位高手,我做VAR模型的滞后阶数,输入4阶后出现这样的结果,我应该选择滞后几阶呢?是不是3阶呀?