After ECB President Draghi asserted that the Governing Council was "unanimous" in its commitment to using "unconventional measures" – including QE – if the risks of prolonged low inflation increased, other ECB Governing Council members, notably Coeuré, have discussed the possible form such measures could take.
This chatter appears to have had some effect. In particular, the upward rise in the euro – which we see as supported by fundamentals such as tight monetary policy and a high current account surplus – has stalled.
But action will prove harder to deliver than words, we think. Any policy action, let alone substantial easing, likely requires the catalyst of a meaningful downgrade of the ECB's 2016 inflation forecast in June or a tightening in monetary or financial conditions. Those conditions have not been met, in our view.
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