德意志银行—中国消费者研究2007

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Changing aspirations and desires
Benefiting from a steady and favorable macro market environment, China is
generating a strong consumer consumption story. Current consumer behavior
should favor department stores, high-end retail and selective consumer goods
such as processed and packaged food. Currently, recommendations that still offer
upside based on our target price are Dickson Concepts and Glorious Sun.

Favorable macro economic environment for consumption
A steady 8% GDP growth in the past, which is expected to continue in the coming
years, a sizeable population undergoing rapid urbanization, a healthy inflation trend
and a growing income and wealth effect, all suggest robust sales and earnings
growths.
A unique and changing market
Although retailers as well as brands ceased to view China as a single market by
consumer types and operations, business and marketing strategies are still being
tweaked currently to meet the underlying market changes. Two examples are the
aging population, which triggers volume effect and the growing middle-class,
which triggers the trading-up effect.
Trend to trade-up
Middle-income class consumers are trading up, especially for discretionary
products which display status. At the same time, their affluence and higher
education has increased awareness on food safety, and their busy work schedules
demand conveniences in food products. Hence, we prefer department stores,
high-end retailing and selective consumer goods such as high quality processed
foods. These segments, in our opinion, should benefit the most from the growing
middle class who anticipate YoY salary increases and can afford to be choosy in
what they consume.
Fast expansion requires discipline in balancing revenue growth and costs
While retailers understand the need to achieve higher operating efficiency in
addition to driving revenue growth, many companies have failed to balance the
two simultaneously. This is shown by the fact that only 55% of the top 100
retailers (in 2000) remained in the top 100 list of 2005, despite continued growth
and an increase in market share by modern-trade. Competition, both foreign and
local, is fierce with the battlefield now moving away from tier 1-2 cities to smaller
cities. In our view, good operators should not only capture the rise in consumption
brought by brand segmentation and new brand entrances, but also effectively
manage the rising operating costs. Same store sales (SSS) is a key indicator.
Buyers of Dickson Concepts and Glorious Sun
Most of our recommendations that benefit from trends mentioned above are
under review due to share price/recommendations that fall outside DB’s rating
structure after the recent market rally. We suggest that investors Buy Dickson
Concepts, a regional retailer with currently 10%+ sales from China; and Glorious
Sun, a casualwear retailer with 50% of earnings coming from China.

Table of content
Introduction ....................................................................................... 3
Macro economics .............................................................................. 4
Introduction – Key data to monitor............................................................................................4
Feel the size – Biggest in Asia (ex-Japan) .................................................................................4
China’s GDP growth: Steady growth of 8% helps drive retail sales .........................................5
Population – Determines the potential size of the market ........................................................6
Urbanization – Boost consumption ...........................................................................................7
Inflation – CPI trend curbs unit price increase...........................................................................8
Income and wealth effect .........................................................................................................8
China market: Characteristics ........................................................ 10
China - An aging market with different consumption focus ....................................................10
China is not a single market ....................................................................................................12
Rise in middle income class....................................................................................................12
Widened income gap between rural and urban ......................................................................14
China: Consumer trend ................................................................... 15
Trend of consumers trading up...............................................................................................15
Consumers going for discretionary items ...............................................................................15
Spending that show your status – Symbols of wealth............................................................16
Go for food safety ...................................................................................................................16
Go for convenience or processed goods ................................................................................17
China: Industry development ......................................................... 18
Government driven merger continues ....................................................................................18
About being big or being strong?............................................................................................18
Concentration of growing modern trade.................................................................................19
Tapping rural consumption......................................................................................................21
More regulations in place........................................................................................................22
Competition from foreign players ...........................................................................................23
Long cash flow cycle in China still need to be dealt with........................................................24
Go for segmentation ...............................................................................................................25
The proliferation of brands from FMCG products to all products ...........................................25
Rising operating cost is a concern ..........................................................................................26
China: Operating data ..................................................................... 28
Store statistics by categories..................................................................................................28
Operating performance by retail format..................................................................................30
Foreign consumer company ranking in China .........................................................................31
Key news in the sector in 2006...............................................................................................33
Recommendations........................................................................... 35
Our current recommendation..................................................................................................35

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