德意志银行--欧洲石化行业研究报告2008年4月

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Investment thesis
Outlook
We believe the global commodity chemical cycle in nearing the end of this current peak
which has lasted from H2 04. While 2008 may remain robust on average, with a clear
downturn in 2009 it is likely that we transition into this downturn through H2 08 as customers
de-stock in anticipation of lower pricing. By 2009, new projects as well as de-bottlenecked
capacity should have forced global ethylene utilisation rates below 90%. The shape of the
downturn beyond then is difficult to predict but a protracted trough appears most likely as
China continues its aggressive expansions and further waves of Middle Eastern capacity
comes on in more predictable and stable regions (such as Saudi Arabia).
By region, Middle Eastern profitability ought to remain the strongest due to feedstock
advantage while Asian utilisation rates remain above average due to their proximity to the
strongest growth customer base. The US is likely to continue to see eroding levels of relative
profitability as the industry continues to migrate to Asia/Middle East – we expect the US to
move from a net exporter of polyethylene in 2007 to a net importer by 2009.
From a product standpoint, ethylene may remain a key indicator but many products will have
different cycles. We see three different classes of products: Firstly, there is a product subsector
that is tied to the ethylene and propylene cycles and should therefore see weakening
economics going forward – ethylene, propylene, PE and PP alongside ethylene oxide and
glycol, PET, PTA and PVC should follow this pattern. Secondly, there is a group of products
that have different capacity forecasts to ethylene and have the potential to remain robust
through the forthcoming petrochemical downturn – MDI and TDI polyurethanes, nylon, SBR
and acetyls (acetic acid, VAM) are examples. The third group of products are ones that are
already suffering from oversupply and as such margins are currently low – indicating that
relative downside risk should be lower – styrenics, acrylic acid, polycarbonate are examples.
Stocks and valuation
With a sustained downturn imminent we do not see opportunities within this sector based
purely on cyclical momentum and instead we focus on companies with leverage to
petrochemical chains that should be relative strong through a downturn (polyurethanes,
polycarbonate, nylon) rather than those that will be weaker (ethylene, propylene,
polyethylene, amongst others). We also look for strong cashflow and low valuations. While
nearly all ‘cyclical’ names are actively promoting a less cyclical strategy, we remain sceptical
of the materiality of some of these claims. Our top picks in Europe – of names with leverage
to the petrochemical industry – are Bayer and BASF. Bayer derives 33% of current sales
from the MaterialScience division which is predominantly leveraged to polyurethane and
polycarbonate. These products may see modest declines in 2008 but in 2009 and 2010
supply/demand balances should improve indicating the potential for growth through this
period (please see pages 108 to 112). Our target is Euro 67. BASF derives less than 25% of
its EBIT from petrochemicals and within that is increasingly focused on chains with less
cyclical risk (polyurethanes, nylon, acrylic acid – see pages 100 and 110-114). It also has
strong cash return to shareholders (we estimate 8% of market cap in 2008 through
dividends/buybacks) and a low valuation (9% FCF yield). Our target is Euro 108. In the US we
favour Celanese due to its strong cost base, leverage to on-going strength in VAM and lack
of material downside risk in acetic acid. We continue to avoid Dow Chemical as it remains
too leveraged to the weakening ethylene cycle. In Asia, our favoured names are TSRC (low
valuation, leverage to sustained strength in SBR) and Sumitomo (leverage of Rabigh JV).
Valuation and risks
We value companies using varying methods including DCF, sum-of-the-parts, P/E and P/BV
ratios. Industry risks are a global GDP weakness, a collapse of oil/gas prices, and a more
rapid ramp-up of Middle East or Chinese capacity additions.

Investment thesis......................................................................................... 3
Petrochemicals in a page............................................................................. 4
Transitioning into a downturn.................................................................... 5
Middle East................................................................................................. 12
North America ............................................................................................ 21
Asia – the focus remains on China............................................................ 30
Japan........................................................................................................... 39
Section II: Product analysis....................................................................... 43
Ethylene .................................................................................................................................44
Propylene...............................................................................................................................48
HDPE .....................................................................................................................................52
LLDPE....................................................................................................................................56
LDPE......................................................................................................................................60
Polypropylene .........................................................................................................................64
PVC ........................................................................................................................................68
Styrene...................................................................................................................................72
Polystyrene .............................................................................................................................76
Ethylene oxide.........................................................................................................................80
Ethylene glycol........................................................................................................................84
Phenol....................................................................................................................................88
PET.........................................................................................................................................92
PTA ........................................................................................................................................96
Nylon/Polyamide ...................................................................................................................100
Caprolactam.........................................................................................................................104
Polycarbonate .......................................................................................................................108
Polyurethane (MDI) ...............................................................................................................110
Polyurethane (TDI).................................................................................................................112
Acrylic Acid ...........................................................................................................................114
Styrene Butadiene Rubber ....................................................................................................117
Paraxylene............................................................................................................................121
Soda Ash..............................................................................................................................125
Acetic Acid...........................................................................................................................126
VAM (Vinyl acetate monomer) ..............................................................................................128
Section III: Top pick summaries.............................................................. 134
Global team contact details .................................................................... 146

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