德意志银行--欧洲石化行业研究报告2008年2月

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Trouble in Nigerian waters
We are not happy!
Nigeria’s President has commented in recent weeks that the country is unhappy with its
share of income from the production of oil and is intent on reviewing existing contract terms.
These remarks come as an uncomfortable reminder to oil & gas investors of the vulnerability
of oil company profits to changes in taxation. This seems particularly so in light of the
significance of Nigerian production to several major IOCs – not least the European majors
Shell, ENI and Total, all of which derive a significant proportion of their income and
production barrels from Nigerian acreage.
Big oil for Big Oil
Indeed, with oil production in Nigeria of about 1.3mb/d consolidated in aggregate by the
country’s main IOC producers, the country currently represents around 10% of the reported
oil production of the major western IOCs. It is also expected to prove an important source of
future IOC production growth. As such, it comes as little surprise that talk of tax increases
should prove disconcerting for investors. In the overall scheme of things, Nigeria is a country
with clear materiality for Big Oil.
What is also clear, however, is that President Yar’Adua’s comments on taxation are directed
at what today represents a modest, albeit strongly growing, part of its industry – namely the
20% or so of production that arises in the country’s deepwater. Indeed, with the marginal
rate of tax in Nigeria’s onshore and shallow water running at around 88%, it would be hard
for Nigeria to argue that its tax take in these areas was overly generous – particularly in light
of the not insignificant risks that civil disruption in recent years has posed for the oil majors.
In fact, Nigeria’s national oil company, NNPC, typically controlling a 55-60% interest in all
onshore projects. Therefore the vast majority of any profit made on the extraction of Nigeria’s
non-deepwater oil quite clearly accrues to the state.
The issues are in the deepwater
In the deepwater the situation is, however, very different. Based on production sharing
contracts that were signed in the early 1990s (the ‘1993 terms’), the state’s share of the
income realised from deepwater production is much lower, as illustrated in Figure 1. In part
this reflects the far greater operating and capital costs associated with extracting oil from the
deep waters of the Gulf of Guinea; in part, the state’s absence as an equity holder in the
major producing contracts. With no royalties, a lower rate of corporate tax and generous
capital allowances it is, however, also reflective of terms which, at today’s oil price, appear
relatively generous. Certainly, they lead to the state receiving far less income than is the case
for Nigeria’s tax and royalty concessions – as illustrated by Figures 11 & 12 overleaf which
depict the allocation of project revenues by cost, contractor and state.

Table of Contents
Price deck & model assumptions ............................................................................3
Key Charts................................................................................................................................4
Trouble in Nigerian waters.......................................................................................5
We are not happy! ....................................................................................................................5
The companies.........................................................................................................................8
So what should we conclude? ..................................................................................................9
Performance & valuation ........................................................................................10
Sector Valuation ......................................................................................................................11
The Companies ........................................................................................................12
The Companies Compared .....................................................................................................15
Top ten assets by NAV ($bn) 2007..........................................................................................16
Top ten assets by NAV ($bn) 2007 (continued).......................................................................17
Top ten assets by NAV ($bn) 2007 (continued).......................................................................18
Company production by geography in 2008 ...........................................................................19
BP – Main projects 2006-11E..................................................................................................20
Royal Dutch Shell – Main projects 2006-11E ..........................................................................21
Total – Main projects 2006-11E...............................................................................................22
Eni – Main projects 2006-11E .................................................................................................23
Repsol-YPF – Main projects 2006-11E ....................................................................................24
StatoilHydro – Main projects 2006-11E...................................................................................25
BG Group – Main projects 2006-11E.......................................................................................26
Company switch & performance charts..................................................................................28
Macro/Commodities ...............................................................................................29
Economic – OECD/Non-OECD................................................................................................29
Futures & Commodities – Latest trends .................................................................................30
Oil – Supply and demand........................................................................................31
Fundamentally challenged ......................................................................................................31
How we got to USD100/bbl oil ...............................................................................................33
How might we get back to USD75/bbl? .................................................................................34
Conclusions............................................................................................................................37
Oil Demand – Inventory data...................................................................................................38
January IEA report highlights – far from perfect…..................................................................39
Supply Side – Top 40 probable crude oil IOC supply additions 2006-10E...............................40
Gas – Supply & demand .........................................................................................42
US natural gas supply and demand outlook............................................................................42
Natural Gas – Top 40 probable Gas IOC supply additions 2006-10E.......................................44
Global LNG...............................................................................................................45
Refining Round-Up ..................................................................................................47
Refining margins by region .....................................................................................................47
Crack Spreads .........................................................................................................................48
Marketing margins – US..........................................................................................................48
Heavy-light spreads – WTI/Maya and Brent/Urals ...................................................................48
US and global refining Stat’s...................................................................................................49
Chemicals in a page.................................................................................................50
Exposure, margin and stocks..................................................................................................50
Appendix A: Major Upstream Deals 2005/07 .......................................................51
Appendix B: Major Downstream Deals 2005/07 ..................................................52
Appendix C: Energy conversion tables..................................................................53
Appendix D: Industry investment thesis...............................................................54

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