德意志银行：美国石化行业研究报告2009年3月

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North America United States
Industrials Integrated Oil
2 March 2009
US Integrated Oils
WACC a goal
Paul Sankey
Research Analyst
(1) 212 250 6137
paul.sankey@db.com
Silvio Micheloto, CFA
Research Analyst
(1) 212 250 1653
silvio.micheloto@db.com
Buy-rated Oxy and XOM screen lowest beta/best for defense.
In this note, we examine WACC, and particularly, we back-calculate the market
discounted WACC of the major oils. We assume the oils price in the commodity
strip and iterate the equity price-implied WACC. It takes a big database (DB +
Wood Mac) + a lot of manhours and computers, but we have the graph. We
highlight there are two elements to the beta in oil stocks 1) oil price leverage, 2)
WACC leverage. A beta play is a double play as the two are positively correlated: if
oil prices start rising it will be due to a more healthy, less risky economy.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Industry Update
Top picks
Occidental Petroleum (OXY.N),USD51.87 Buy
Canadian Natural (CNQ.TO),CAD40.90 Buy
Companies featured
ExxonMobil (XOM.N),USD67.90 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 8.46 4.18 5.84
P/E (x) 9.8 16.2 11.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.5 8.7 7.4
Chevron (CVX.N),USD60.71 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 11.18 3.69 5.84
P/E (x) 7.6 16.5 10.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.9 5.9 4.5
ConocoPhillips (COP.N),USD37.35 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 10.60 2.97 5.91
P/E (x) 7.1 12.6 6.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.8 2.7 1.8
Occidental Petroleum (OXY.N),USD51.87 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 8.95 2.02 4.11
P/E (x) 8.0 25.6 12.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.2 7.0 4.3
Marathon Oil (MRO.N),USD23.27 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 6.36 1.91 3.42
P/E (x) 6.8 12.2 6.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.8 4.6 3.3
Hess Corporation (HES.N),USD54.69 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 7.28 -0.89 1.73
P/E (x) 12.3 – 31.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.0 9.0 4.9
Murphy Oil (MUR.N),USD41.81 Sell
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 8.52 1.40 3.08
P/E (x) 8.5 29.9 13.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.5 5.2 3.6
Canadian Natural (CNQ.TO),CAD40.90 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (CAD) 5.05 5.96 3.69
P/E (x) 13.5 6.9 11.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.1 4.6 5.0
Suncor Energy (SU.TO),CAD26.46 Sell
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (CAD) 3.49 1.00 1.58
P/E (x) 13.7 26.4 16.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.2 13.2 9.8
Petro-Canada (PCA.TO),CAD28.08 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (CAD) 7.82 2.19 3.97
P/E (x) 5.6 12.8 7.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.0 4.0 3.1
Global Markets Research Company
Understanding why oil price leveraged Oxy outperforms WTI
When we went outright negative on oil in October, we cut our price targets not
only on lower expected earnings/returns for the oils, but also because we raised
the basic WACC for the group from 7.5% to 10%. We highlighted that the impact
of rising WACC was greater than falling oil price. We re-visit those arguments
here; as markets gyrate, beta is higher cost of debt is lower; and net cash XOM
and Oxy have massively out-performed. Oxy is particularly interesting, as its high
oil price leverage has been more than offset by even higher sensitivity to WACC.

Table of Contents
WACC Details..................................................................................... 3
The performance................................................................................ 7
The deck ............................................................................................. 8
The valuations.................................................................................. 10
Management value.......................................................................... 12
EV/BOE: Cheapest barrels on Wall Street..................................... 14
Reserves replacement/sustainability ............................................ 15
Volume growth................................................................................ 16
Earnings momentum....................................................................... 17
Oil share in S&P 500 EPS ................................................................ 18
Net income sensitivity .................................................................... 19
Upstream net income per barrel produced................................... 20
Downstream net income per barrel refined.................................. 21
Cash return to shareholders ........................................................... 22
Return on capital employed ........................................................... 23
DCF Implied Discounted Oil Price .................................................. 24
ExxonMobil – NAV, P&L, Cashflow................................................ 25
Chevron – NAV, P&L, Cash flow..................................................... 27
ConocoPhillips – NAV, P&L, Cashflow........................................... 29
Occidental – NAV, P&L, Cashflow.................................................. 31
Marathon – NAV, P&L, Cashflow ................................................... 33
Hess – NAV, P&L, Cashflow............................................................ 35
Murphy – NAV, P&L, Cashflow....................................................... 37
Suncor – NAV, P&L, Cashflow........................................................ 39
Petro-Canada – NAV, P&L, Cashflow............................................. 41
Canadian Natural Resources – NAV, P&L, Cashflow.................... 43

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