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Europe
Media
6 February 2009
media@db
Results season underway
Paul Reynolds
Research Analyst
(44) 20 754 76539
paul.reynolds1@db.com
Mark Braley, ACA
Research Analyst
(44) 20 754 59904
mark.braley@db.com
Patrick Kirby
Research Analyst
(44) 20 754 73560
patrick.kirby@db.com
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Periodical
Euro Media Sector Performance
06/02/09
F M A M J J A S O N D J
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
DJ STOXX600 MEDIAE - PRICE INDEX
DJ STOXX 600 E - PRICE INDEX
Source: Thomson Datastream
Table of Contents
Antena 3 Pg 04
MTG Pg 09
Yell Group Plc Pg 20
Global Markets Research Company
Rough week for US media majors
This week saw results from Disney, NewsCorp and Time Warner. None was
pretty: Disney’s cal Q4-08 EPS was down 29% YoY; NewsCorp guided to a 30%
drop in EBIT for yr to Jun-09; Time Warner Q4 EBITDA down 8%. Some of this
was priced in – Disney fell c10% this week, but Time Warner and NewsCorp rose
marginally. The simple takeaway remains that current trading is very very poor.
With visibility non-existent for cyclicals, we remain defensively positioned in
Europe – BUYs on Vivendi, Reed.
Publicis (Hold, E21 TP) – preliminary results due February 11th
Publicis is the first European agency to report results. We assume 3.4% organic
revenue growth for FY2008, implying just under -2% organic revenue decline in
Q4. In terms of profitability, we assume 16.2% operating margins, down from
16.7% in 2007. The investment debate on ad agencies currently is whether the
prospect of eventual recovery, potentially driven by the US, outweighs the drag of
at least two to three quarters of deteriorating numbers. Our near term concern is
that advertising newsflow is deteriorating faster than expected, which suggests
EPS risk (both revenue and margin) remains higher than consensus anticipates.
Publicis' valuation is undemanding in a historic context (9.4x 2009 P/E), but the
shares are already at a premium to both Media (8.6x) and the market average.
MTG (Hold, SEK 155 TP) - results due Feb 12 - we expect an EBIT of SEK783m
Our EBIT forecast represents 16% growth excl. CTCM, mainly driven by pay-TV
Nordic. Nevertheless we expect to see the first material sign of a slowdown in the
FTA business (Scandinavia as well as C&EE). The acquisition of Nova TV in
Bulgaria was, in our opinion, very expensive and badly timed. There is in our view
a need for an impairment charge but we question if this will come in Q4.
Antena 3 (Hold, E4 TP) - times still tough...cutting estimates again
Spain’s ad market continues to show some of the worst trends in Europe. We
lower our estimates to reflect a tough Q4-08 and a poor start to 2009 despite
Antena 3's increased focus on costs. There is a chronic lack of ad revenue visibility
– we assume 2009 is down 15%. In addition, part state-funded competitor, TVE,
can maintain its programming spend, grow audience share and sell its advertising
inventory at far below A3’s prices. Our target at E4.0/share backs into a 7.8x
EV/EBITDA multiple - more positively the shares are supported by a 5.5% yield
Yell (Buy, 125p TP) FY guidance: ahead on EBITDA, weaker on revenues
Yell’s Q4 revenue guidance reflects a very tough market for Yellow Pages
advertising – down 12% underlying, a material lurch-down after 4% in Q3,
reflecting “paralysis” in the market in Oct/Nov. However full year EBITDA
guidance was better than expected. Importantly the group is pointing to an
improvement in the rate of decline for fiscal Q1, based on progress with print
canvasses for the period and online sales. FY EBITDA guidance is £800m, better
than consensus £770-780m. The investment debate is now less around short term
financial viability and more around the timing of any recovery, longer term
prospects, and the equity impact of the eventual refinancing.
Table of Contents
Antena 3 ............................................................................................. 4
Downgrading estimates as outlook worsens............................................................................4
Key model assumptions............................................................................................................5
MTG.................................................................................................... 9
Q4 preview: solid quarter but bleak outlook .............................................................................9
MTG in figures ........................................................................................................................10
Yell Group Plc .................................................................................. 20
Q3 results - FY EBITDA guidance ahead of forecast ...............................................................20
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