德意志银行：欧洲传媒行业研究报告2009年6月

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Europe
Media
12 June 2009
[email=media@db]media@db[/email]
The main event
Paul Reynolds
Research Analyst
(44) 20 754 76539
paul.reynolds1@db.com
Mark Braley, ACA
Research Analyst
(44) 20 754 59904
mark.braley@db.com
Patrick Kirby
Research Analyst
(44) 20 754 73560
patrick.kirby@db.com
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Periodical
Euro Media Sector Performance
12/6/09
J J A S O N D J F M A M J
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
DJ STOXX 600 E - PRICE INDEX
DJ STOXX 600 MEDIAE - PRICE INDEX
Source: Thomson Datastream
Table of Contents
Informa PLC Pg 03
ProSiebenSat.1 Media AG Pg 16
Global Markets Research Company
Informa (Buy) – Early ride on a late cycle
The balance sheet is fixed, post rights issue. Informa is now “just” a cyclical,
albeit late-cyclical and fairly early into deceleration. Our forecasts assume revenue,
margins and EPS trough in 2010. With 31p of EPS forecast for 2010, the stock is
on just 7x PE. While the turn in EPS momentum might be relatively slower for this
name than, say, for a consumer media owner, we think that Informa can behave
more like an early cycle name in share price terms – i.e. operating and financial
leverage can be positives. Implicit in the Q1 trading statement was an underlying
revenue decline. But explicit in the same statement was a margin improvement.
There is not a profit collapse happening, because the revenue streams that are
taking the most pain are those that have reasonably flexible cost bases. Another
key point, easily overlooked, is that the rights issue not just avoided the need to
refinance at punitively high rates, but actually gives continued access to
exceptionally low interest costs – current borrowing under the facility costs INF
just 4.5%. Post 2010, we think Informa can return to “non-slump” revenue growth
rates of 5-7%. But the stock is in fact priced as if it will never grow again – a 7x
PE, even with a penal WACC (e.g. 10%), would suggest terminal decline of 4%.
Through-cycle that would be, in our view, a very bearish assumption. From a
trough it appears simply absurd. Our price target is 440p (DCF based, WACC
7.5%, g 2.5%).
Prosieben (Buy) - Buying time for a cyclical recovery
New information on the financial position of ProSieben materially improves our risk
perception of the shares. We feel investors can buy this as a pure broadcaster
without a heavy discount for insolvency risk. We forecast no real adspend
recovery: but with a 12% EPS uplift in the event of a 1% adspend beat in 2010,
operational leverage is very high and affords considerable upside once the cyclical
turn is in evidence. With high leverage, more than anything, ProSieben needs time
to survive the economic downturn to allow multiples to reflate. Our fear has been
that a covenant breach would mean that the senior lenders could potentially sell
the Company for the value of the senior debt - to the detriment of pref holders.
But we now see this outcome as unlikely. The dividend has been dropped, the
company. is hoarding cash (E509m at Q109) and management has also taken its
own steps to defend cashflow, through aggressively and pre-emptively managing
costs. Most revealing, in its AGM proposals, the company acknowledged that a
senior debt covenant breach could be cured by a cash injection. Shareholders
voted last week to allow ProSieben to either issue stock or a convertible to cure a
breach in a worst case. Pref holder rights were amended to allow them preemption
on any new capital raising, avoiding the risk of dilution by ordinary
shareholders KKR/Permira. These developments comprise a significant step up in
visibility for equity owners. ProSieben’s equity is highly geared comprising ~20%
of the EV. Earnings sensitivity is also high: a 1% adspend increase in 2010 sees a
12% EPS uplift. With greater clarity on financing arrangements, we see the shares
re-rating to 8.5x 10E EV/EBITDA, a mid point between a full recovery 10x CY
EV/EBITDA and trough

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