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M&S conjecture continues
Last week the sector traded broadly in line with the wider market with the SXKP
up 1.2% versus the STOXX up 1.4%. KPN was the biggest SXKP constituent
gainer last week (+7%) following press conjecture regarding the prospect of bid
interest from Telefonica (subsequently denied), and Elisa (-14.9%) was the biggest
faller following a surprise profit warning early in the week. The week ahead sees
1Q08 results from KPN (Tues) and Telenor (Weds), and Bouygues goes exdividend
(Mon).
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from
local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies.
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should
be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research is available to customers of
DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access this IR at http://gm.db.com, or call 1-877-208-6300 to
request that a copy of the IR be sent to them.
DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1
Current Events
Top picks
Vodafone Group Plc (VOD.L),GBP159.20 Buy
Deutsche Telekom (DTEGn.DE),EUR11.18 Buy
Elisa Corporation (ELI1V.HE),EUR16.30 Buy
Table of contents
Multiples, ratings and valuation......................... Page 2
Weekly Summary .............................................. Page 4
Debt and Derivatives ......................................... Page 7
Dividends........................................................... Page 8
Events Calendar................................................. Page 9
Weekly news.................................................... Page 10
DB Research..................................................... Page 14
Upcoming events Date
DB Italian Conference (Milan) 29-30 May
DB German Conference (Frankfurt) 4-5 June
Pan-European Telecoms Team
Matthew Bloxham matthew.bloxham@db.com
44 20 754 58163
Carola Bardelli carola.bardelli@db.com
39 0286379-708
Benjamin Kohnke benjamin.kohnke@db.com
49 69 910 31943
Jussi Uskola jussi.uskola@db.com
358 9 2525 2551
Maurizio Pandolfi maurizio.pandolfi@db.com
39 028 6379 709
Sales Contact
Audrey Wiggin audrey.wiggin@db.com
+44 20 754 50707
Jonathan Smith jonathan-d.smith@db.com
+44 20 754 74383
Global Markets Research Company
Strategy/Economics news and analysis
Consensus Earnings Trends: Globally, earnings estimate downgrades have
continued for the eighth consecutive month with accelerating momentum. Global
12-month forward earnings have seen the second strongest 1-month downgrades
since 2003 of 1.5% and the strongest 3-month downgrades (4.3%).
Key DB Telecoms research published this week
BT: FY07/08 results due on 15 May will, in our view, be as notable for the update
on capex guidance as they will be for farewells to the outgoing CEO. We have
revised estimates for BT Group, with revenues cut by c1% to 4% for FY08-FY10
and EBITDA cut by c1% to 3%. The reductions reflect recent quarterly trends and
an expectation that competitive pressure on the business will remain high. EBITDA
trends should be helped by the pull through of various cost reduction initiatives
although we expect much of this to be re-invested in the business. HOLD rating
unchanged, TP lowered to 260p.
Vodafone: Regulation of mobile termination rates has come back into focus
following recent comments made by the European Commission. Whilst we think
concerns are potentially overplayed we acknowledge that this is an asymmetric
risk to the downside which could impact share price performance until we get
more clarity later in the year. Otherwise we think trading remains robust and we
have updated our estimates for the latest FX moves. Remains BUY, 220p TP
unchanged.
Telecom Italia: Q1 results are due on 9th May. We expect Q1 to be the weakest
quarter of the year as mobile will be affected by the Bersani decree (at c.Euro
120m impact), mobile interconnect cut (c.Euro 40m) and roaming cuts (another
c.Euro 40m). We estimate a c.6% fall and a 10% fall for domestic revenues (Euro
5,629m) and EBITDA (Euro 2,585m) respectively vs. FY targets of <5% decline for
revenues and <6% decline for EBITDA. HOLD rating and EUR1.90 TP unchanged.
Valuation: total return +36.7%; Risks: M&A coming back into focus
The sector offers a 36.7% total return opportunity. The integrated operators trade
on a 2008E EV/EBITDA of 5.3x, P/E of 12.3x, a dividend yield of 6% and a FCF
yield of 6.5%. Risks: In the near term, the ability to maintain performance in line
with stated guidance is key to the sector outlook. (Please see page 2 for further
details.)
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