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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月日本电信行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：42
【目录或简介】：
Remain cautious on growth outlook after
fierce competition in 1H March 2010
􀀗 Expect slowing growth in fibre; less
competition in wireless broadband:
upgrade eAccess to OW from UW
􀀗 iPhone drives momentum at SoftBank:
abandon bear case scenario, raise
target price to JPY1,750 from JPY840
Wireless 1H results at NTT DoCoMo, KDDI and SoftBank
confirmed recent trends. Ongoing declines at NTT DoCoMo
and KDDI (1.4% and 4.5% for sales and operating profit (OP)
at KDDI, and 5.4% and 15.9% declines for NTT DoCoMo),
and strong iPhone-driven momentum at SoftBank.
We are cautious on the outlook for FY March 2011. In
wireless, voice revenue declines from the move to a highsubsidy,
high-fee model to one based on low subsidies and
low monthly fees are not likely to be offset by data ARPU
increases. Flat-rate data tariff adoption is already high at c40%
of total users, and market data ARPU at JPY2,300 (USD23,
42% of service revenues) has little room to grow relative to
peers such as Korea, with data ARPU of KRW7,700 (USD7,
23% of service revenues). We move to a somewhat less bearish
stance on SoftBank, which continues to drive earnings growth
via the iPhone, but remain Underweight, with a new target
price of JPY1,750. We move from DCF to PE-based valuation
methodologies for NTT, KDDI, and NTT DoCoMo.
A relative bright spot is wireless broadband. With
competition for eMobile slower than expected, we raise our
subscriber estimate for FY March 2011 to 3.56m from 3.26m,
and raise our rating on eAccess to Overweight (V) from
Underweight (V).
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